JAKARTA - The provision of holiday allowances (THR) for state officials has begun to be disbursed since Monday (17/3/2025). In the midst of a difficult economic situation like now, can THR help increase people's purchasing power and encourage economic turnover in various sectors?
Spokesperson for the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs Haryo Limanseto said THR disbursement for ASN fell faster than usual. This is done to increase people's purchasing power, strengthen domestic consumption, and encourage economic turnover in various sectors, especially trade and services.
However, the economic situation in the country is arguably not doing well. People are believed to think twice about spending THR on spending on necessities during Eid al-Fitr in the midst of the sluggish economy.
Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) Bhima Yudhistira said, many people hold back spending because of uncertain situations amid high waves of layoffs (PHK) and increasingly limited job opportunities.
THR's disbursement ahead of Eid al-Fitr was originally a happy moment. THR money is one of the most anticipated.
Generally, THR is used for purposes during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr holidays, where many people spend at these moments are booming. Starting from increased consumption needs, to spending during Eid homecoming.
But something is different this year. The high number of layoffs is in line with the surge in unemployment in Indonesia. Not to mention the budget efficiency policy carried out by the government, it is said to have a domino effect on the economy.
The Ministry of Manpower noted that around 80,000 people were laid off throughout 2024. This number increased from 60,000 layoffs that occurred in the previous year. In addition, around 60 companies are said by the government to have the potential to carry out mass layoffs by 2025.
One of the things that has happened is the layoff of 12,000 workers at the giant textile company Sritex at the end of February.
In the midst of uncertain economic conditions like today, there are indications that people prefer not to use THR money for shopping or savings. That way, how will it impact the economy?
Executive Director of BELIOS Bhima Yudhistira predicts that more people will hold back their desire to shop because of the sluggish situation.
"The public is on guard, worried that after the wave of layoffs will be even higher and he will be a victim of layoffs. So there is uncertainty in the future," said Bhima.
This situation is exacerbated by the increasing number of Indonesians who are included in the genusandwich group, namely groups of people at productive age who not only bear the cost of living for themselves, but also children, as well as parents or extended families.
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The Kompas Research and Development Survey in 2022 shows that around 67 percent of respondents are part of the sandwich generation. If the figure is proportional to the number of productive Indonesians, the number is around 56 million people.
Generasisandwich, kata Bhima, terpaksa mengalokasikan pendapatannya untuk kebutuhan keluarga.
Jadispending for things related to oneself is even very small. Even if there are remnants, they will be saved, stored. The tendency is so," explained Bhima.
On one occasion, Haryo Limanseto said, the acceleration of the disbursement of THR ASN with an allocation of around Rp. 50 trillion is expected to have a positive impact on macroeconomic stability. In addition, it can also be one of the factors in achieving economic growth targets in the first quarter of 2025.
But with economist predictions that many residents choose to save part of the THR rather than spend, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will slow down compared to the same period last year, which was 5.1 percent.
Executive Director of the Center of Reform Economics (CORE) Indonesia Mohammad Faisal predicted that in the first quarter of 2025 economic growth could be only 4.9 percent or even below that.
He explained that the current weak purchasing power was due to a decrease in real wages or the ability of money received by the public to buy goods and services. Many workers are forced to live mediocre lives with their monthly salaries without being able to set aside some income for savings.
Therefore, the existence of THR is very important because it can help workers increase consumption, including to buy food and clothes or return home to celebrate Eid al-Fitr. But on the other hand, seeing the increasingly sluggish economy, Faisal predicts that people will be more careful spending the THR this year.
Macroeconomic researchers at the University of Indonesia Institute for Economic and Community Research (LPEM) Teuku Riefky agree with this. According to him, THR alone is not enough to save the economy at this time, which is currently sluggish.
To improve the situation, Riefky advised the government to resolve basic or structural issues.
"Such as productivity issues, job creation, then formal employment opportunities, increasing people's purchasing power, all of that must be solved first," said Riefky.
"If it is not broken down, then I don't think anything can significantly boost the economy," he concluded.
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