JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that high rainfall will still occur until next October in most parts of Indonesia.
"The results of monthly rainfall predictions show that the rainfall anomaly that has occurred since May 2025 will continue, with the above normal rainfall conditions occurring in most parts of Indonesia until October 2025," said BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati in a virtual press conference, Monday, July 7th.
BMKG has previously revealed that the dry season in a number of areas has experienced setbacks. By the end of July 2025, only about 30 percent of the Seasonal Zone had entered the dry season.
This figure is only half of normal conditions, where climatologically around 64 percent of Seasonal Zones usually experience a dry season at the end of June.
According to him, this phenomenon occurs due to interactions from several atmospheric factors. One of them is because of the weakening Australian Monsoon.
"The weakening of the Australian Monsoon which is associated with the dry season also causes sea level temperatures in southern Indonesia to remain warm, and this contributes to the occurrence of the rainfall anomaly," said Dwikorita.
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In addition, it was observed that the Kelvin waves were actively crossing the north coast of Java and the Java Sea, accompanied by a slowdown and wind bends in western and southern Java that triggered the buildup of air masses. Local atmospheric liabilities were also observed to be strong and accelerated the growth of convective clouds.
Furthermore, BMKG estimates that a number of areas will have the potential to experience heavy to very heavy rain in the next week, namely the western and central parts of Java including Greater Jakarta, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi and surrounding areas, West Nusa Tenggara including Mataram, central Maluku, central and northern Papua.
In the period 10 to 12 July 2025, the potential for significant rain is expected to shift to the central and eastern parts of Indonesia, along with shifts in atmospheric disturbances and distribution of tropical humidity.
"BMKG urges the public to remain alert to the potential for heavy rain which can be accompanied by lightning and strong winds. Beware of the risk of hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, landslides, fallen trees, and transportation disturbances," he concluded.
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