Early Drought In South Central Java Mundur, BMKG Calls Rain Still Down 50 Mm Per Basis

Illustration of rain flushed in the evening. (Between)

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that the start of the dry season in parts of southern Java (Central Java) took place backwards from the time previously predicted.

"As in Cilacap Regency, based on the forecast issued by the BMKG of the Semarang Climatology Station, the start of the dry season is predicted on the second basis of May until the second basis of June," said Head of the BMKG Technician Group of Meteorological Station Tunggul Wulung Cilacap Teguh Wardoyo in Cilacap, Wednesday, May 21, confiscated by Antara.

However, until the beginning of the third basis in May, he said, in some areas of Cilacap there was still rain of more than 50 millimeters (mm) per basis.

In this case, he said, as the beginning of the dry season if the rainfall in one basis or 10 days is the same or less than 50 millimeters followed by the next two bases.

Based on observations of rainfall data until Wednesday, May 21, he continued, the average rainfall on the first and second grounds of May in a number of areas of Cilacap Regency, such as Dayeuhluhur, Majenang, Sidareja, Kampunglaut, Adipala, and Kroya, is still above 50 millimeters, so it has not yet entered the beginning of the dry season.

"Thus, the start of the dry season in areas that are predicted to enter the dry season in the second half of May such as Dayeuhluhur, Wanareja, Cipari, and northern Sidareja will certainly withdraw. Meanwhile, other areas in Cilacap Regency, early in the dry season, are predicted in the third basis of May until the second basis in June will be evaluated later," he said.

He further said that a number of areas in southern Central Java, including several areas in Cilacap Regency, experienced quite high rain in May 2025.

According to him, this is due to weekly weather disturbances such as cyclonic circulation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomenon, the Kelvin, Rossby Ekuator, and Low Frequency waves, in several parts of Indonesia.

Meanwhile, on a local scale, he said, humidity is still quite high so that rainfall in May is still high in Cilacap, even in Java.

"In the next four days in the Cilacap region, it is predicted that there will still be the potential for light to moderate rain which is sometimes accompanied by lightning in the afternoon until evening. The temperature ranges from 24-33 degrees Celsius, the humidity ranges from 64-98 percent, and the wind blows from the southeast with speeds between 5-25 kilometers per hour," said Teguh.

Based on data released by the BMKG Semarang Climatology Station on Wednesday, May 21, related to rainfall analysis on the second basis of May 2025, parts of Central Java in the medium rainfall criteria (51-150 millimeters per basis) to very high (more than 300-millimeter basis).

Meanwhile, low rainfall (050 mm/dasarian) occurred along the north coast, parts of the southern region of Banyumas, Kebumen, Purworejo, Wonogiri, and parts of western Blora.

While the third basic rainfall probabilistic prediction in May 2025, generally has a chance of more than 70 percent in the medium category (51-150 millimeters per basis), while for the East Pantura it is in the low category (less than 50 millimeters per basis).

The prediction of the third basic rainfall deterministic in May 2025, is generally predicted to be in the medium category (51-150 millimeters per basis) except for parts of the eastern coast region in the low category (21-50 millimeters per basis), while parts of Central Java and parts of Cilacap are in the high category (151-300 millimeters per basis.

In the first to third basis in June 2025, in general, Central Java is predicted to be in the low category (0-50 millimeters per basis), except for parts of central Central Java in the medium category (51-100 millimeters per basis).