Earth is Getting Hotter, Extreme El Niño Threatens to Break World Temperature Record

JAKARTA - An unprecedented climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is expected to drive global temperature increases and potentially make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.

Researchers say the El Niño phenomenon, which is now getting stronger, has the potential to be the largest in at least the last 150 years, according to the multidisciplinary scientific journal Nature.

If the projections are realized, the heat released from the ocean, coupled with climate change due to human activities, could trigger extreme weather in various regions of the world.

Climate models predict this El Niño peak will surpass the previous record by a huge margin. Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the possibility that the phenomenon along with climate change is pushing the global average temperature in 2027 to 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is still open.

This condition will make the earth's temperature closer to the 1.5 degree celsius threshold that the world's countries are trying to avoid through the Paris Agreement.

"As an illustration, the difference between the strongest El Niño and the fifth strongest in the last 150 years is only about 0.5 degrees Celsius. These models project something that is outside the range of anything we have ever observed," said Hausfather as quoted from VnExpress.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said El Niño has begun. The phenomenon is characterized by a shift of warm water to the east towards the waters that are usually colder off the coast of Peru.

NOAA estimates the chance of El Niño developing into a very strong phenomenon by the end of the year is 63 percent. This figure is almost double the estimate issued by the agency in May.

United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres said the phenomenon was a reminder of the importance of accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

"The world must see it as an urgent climate warning. The El Niño conditions will fuel the already ongoing global warming," Guterres said.

El Niño is one of the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a cycle of changes in sea surface temperature and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean that alternate between the warm El Niño phase and the cold La Niña phase every two to seven years. The last El Niño phenomenon occurred in 2023-2024.