Celios Spotlighted the Anomaly of the Source of Economic Growth in 2025

JAKARTA - The Director of the Digital Economy Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda spoke out regarding the validity of Indonesia's economic growth data in 2025 which was reported by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) at 5.11 percent on an annual basis (year on year/YoY) and 5.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to Huda, there are a number of irregularities in the source of economic growth.

He assessed that the contribution of household consumption and gross fixed capital formation (PMTB) which reached 82.65 percent was not in line with the growth rate of both which was below the national economic growth rate.

"In terms of c to c or cumulative 2025, household consumption and PMTB growth do not exceed 5.11 percent while the contribution of both reaches 82.65 percent. Then, where is the source of growth that makes it 5.11 percent?," he explained in his statement, quoted Sunday, February 8.

Meanwhile, Huda added that exports did record the highest growth of 7.03 percent, but the contribution of net exports to GDP was relatively small, only 8.47 percent.

"If you look at the exposure of the BPS head, the highest growth is exports with a growth of 7.03 percent. But don't forget, exports never stand alone because there is import (international trade). The net export growth is also relatively small, 8.47 percent, but it is the main driver? This is a question," he said.

He also highlighted the surge in PMTB which was driven by imports of machinery and equipment with growth of 17.99 percent.

On the other hand, Huda revealed that net exports are said to be one of the main sources of economic growth and this condition raises questions about the recording of machine imports, whether it is included in the PMTB component, imports, or both.

"Net exports are claimed to be a booster for economic growth by becoming a source of growth of 0.74 percent. So where do we place the IMPORT of the machine?," he said.

In addition, Huda assessed that the economic growth data was not in line with the condition of tax revenue which actually experienced contraction, especially on consumption-based taxes such as VAT and PPnBM.

"Naturally, when the economy is good, tax revenue also improves. As a result, this contradictory figure becomes a question," he said.

On a quarterly basis, household consumption did increase at the end of the year in line with the rise in the Consumer Confidence Index.

However, Huda noted that in the previous period, household consumption had grown higher without being followed by economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, so that PMTB again became a determining factor.

"This PMTB growth is claimed to have increased by 6 percent, which is contributed by the building and machinery and equipment sub-components. Again, imported machinery is the main driver of PMTB. My question for BPS: Is the import of machinery and equipment included in PMTB or Import or both?," he said.

Furthermore, he suspected that the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was related to efforts to maintain the fiscal deficit ratio.

With a fiscal deficit of IDR 695.1 trillion and a ratio of 2.92 percent to GDP, Huda assessed that the GDP figure on the basis of the applicable prices announced by BPS was almost in line with the needs of the fiscal calculation, thus raising questions about the independence of data preparation.

"If the fiscal deficit is IDR 695.1 trillion and the ratio is 2.92 percent. Then the GDP on the basis of prevailing prices needed is IDR 23,804 trillion. The figure is almost similar to what BPS announced. Is there a special order from the Ministry of Finance?," he said.