Celios Economist: Conducive Weather Becomes A Normal Rice Production Factor

JAKARTA - Economic observer at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda revealed that conducive weather is a key factor in rice production in normal conditions.

"rice production seems to be experiencing normal conditions again after El Nino's prolonged condition," said Nailul Huda as quoted by ANTARA, Monday, February 10.

El Nino is a phenomenon when the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean increases above normal.

This condition causes more clouds in the central part of the Pacific Ocean so that there is less rain in most parts of Indonesia

Weather factors are indeed the key to influencing rice harvest which then has an impact on stock availability and rice prices in the market.

"Last year, there was indeed a prolonged dry season and a shift in the harvest season in the first quarter. What was previously the harvest season occurred in March, but shifted to April-May. As a result, the stock was very unstable and made prices very uncertain," he said.

Nailul said that weather factors that are not in extreme conditions at this time will make rice production in stable condition.

"This year it seems that the main harvest season will occur simultaneously in March. The weather also does not have such extreme conditions that rice production does not seem to have any significant disturbances. Rice production in the main harvest season will be stable," he said.

For information, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) projects that national rice production in the January-March 2025 period is expected to have a significant increase of up to 52.32 percent.

Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the potential production of rice from January to March 2025 is estimated at 8.67 million tons, a sharp increase of 52.32 percent compared to the same period in 2024 which was recorded at 5.69 million tons.

This increase is in line with the widespread potential for rice harvest area which is estimated at 2.83 million hectares.

This figure shows an increase of around 970,330 hectares or 52.08 percent compared to the harvest area in January-March 2024 which is only 1.86 million hectares.