North Korea Will Have 242 Nuclear Weapons And Dozens Of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles By 2027

JAKARTA - North Korea is said to have hundreds of nuclear weapons and dozens of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This prompted the United States and South Korea to consider all options, to counter the growing threat.

This was revealed by The Asan Institute for Policy Studies and The Rand Corp in a joint research report. Both called on South Korea and the United States to take tactical action on the condition of anonymizing the situation.

The report comes amid worrying signs of activity at North Korea's east coast shipyard, which is seen as a submarine-launched ballistic missile test site. Also, after a UN panel reported Pyongyang continued to develop its nuclear and missile programs.

"It is estimated that the total number of North Korean nuclear weapons by 2027 will be between 151 and 242, in addition to dozens of intercontinental ballistic missiles moving", wrote a report titled 'Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons', visiting Koreatimes, Tuesday, April 13.

The report bases its estimates on the amount of fissile material, such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium, which is believed to have been produced by Pyongyang, citing data such as estimates by the United States intelligence community.

"We estimate the number of North Korean nuclear weapons from 2017 to 2027, with an initial number of 30 to 60 nuclear weapons by 2017, with one to two plutonium weapons added by 2020, and an increasing number of 12 weapons per year or 18 weapons per year", said the report.

Nevertheless, the report notes the need for caution in concluding North Korea's weapons inventory, referencing the fact the estimate is not based on actual nuclear weapons production. And, an uncertain number of operational centrifuges are used to produce highly enriched uranium.

However, it is not closed to the possibility that North Korea could use threats and nuclear attacks in a much more coercive and diverse way. To that end, South Korea and the United States are asked to be on standby.

"The United States could also threaten North Korea that if it crosses the threshold of an ICBM or an inventory of nuclear weapons or both, the United States will place eight to ten ROK tactical nuclear weapons capable of destroying deep underground facilities", added. ROK is the official name of South Korea, Republic of Korea.

The report added that the transfer of operational control of the role period (OPCON) from Washington to Seoul should be delayed until support for the provision of nuclear weapons from the United States to South Korea is realized.

"Unlike in conventional conflicts, in nuclear conflicts, South Korea is not prepared to take a leading role in dealing with North Korea, especially at an early stage of possibility", said the report.

"This is a major weakness that could lead North Korea to interpret the OPCON transition as a sign of the United States' faltering commitment to support the ROK", concluded the report.