Economists Estimate Indonesia's 2024 Economic Growth In The Range Of 4.7-4.9 Percent

JAKARTA - Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara estimates that national economic growth next year will reach 4.7-4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy).

This figure is lower than the basic assumption of the macroeconomics of the 2025 State Budget which agreed on an economic growth target of 5.2 percent.

"For economic outlooks in terms of macro, we project that this economic growth ranges from 4.7 to 4.9 percent for 2025, one of which is assuming that the 10 new levies that are planned to start next year are implemented," said Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara in Jakarta, quoted from Antara, Friday, November 22.

His party noted that there are 10 new levies that the government plans to implement next year, including 12 percent VAT, mandatory pension funds, third-party legal responsibility vehicle insurance (THird party liability), Tapera, and packaged sugar excise.

In addition, there was also an increase in BPJS Kesehatan contributions, an increase in UKT, an end to PPh UMKM 0.5 percent relief, an increase in fuel prices, and an adjustment to KRL rates based on NIK. He considered that the new levies could reduce people's purchasing power.

Bhima said that in addition to a number of new levies, the slowdown in economic growth of Indonesia's main trading partner countries, such as China, will also affect domestic economic growth next year.

The change of leadership in the United States of Joe Biden and Donald Trump also provides uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy which will later have an impact on the benchmark interest rate of Bank Indonesia (BI rate) and the rupiah exchange rate.

"Well, this is also related to foreign exchange reserves contributed by commodity-based sectors, because next year the commodity bonanza is also not very reliable, this has implications there," he said.

Bhima also asked the government to encourage more intensive investment into Indonesia through concrete policies and place the capital obtained in the right sector.

He also reminded the importance of maintaining a budget deficit by prioritizing the implementation of certain leading programs and national strategic projects that can have a direct positive impact on the community without burdening the state budget.

"Because if the budget deficit expands due to the government's program, the implications will be for taxes and also the implications for crowding out effects in the main financing sector," he added.