Currently, Prabowo Subianto Is Superior In The Presidential Candidate Survey, But He Could Be Overtaken By Ganjar Pranowo In 2024

JAKARTA - Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto ranks the highest in support for presidential candidates if the 2024 General Election is held today. This is based on the exposure of the survey from the SMRC institution.

This survey was conducted in the period February 28 to March 8, 2021. The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1.220 randomly selected respondents. The margin of error for this survey is estimated to be around 3.07 percent and the survey's confidence level is 95 percent.

In fact, the name Joko Widodo has been chosen the most in the upcoming presidential candidate market. However, according to the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, Jokowi is no longer allowed to run as a presidential candidate because the maximum limit for serving is 2 terms.

If Jokowi's name is issued, Prabowo Subianto will rank first in support of the presidential candidate by 20 percent. In addition, Anies received 11.2 percent support.

Then, the name Ganjar Pranowo received 8.8 percent support, Sandiaga Uno 5 percent, Ridwan Kamil 4.8 percent, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) 4.8 percent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 3.5 percent, Tri Rismaharini 3.1 percent, and other names under 3 percent. Then 17.6 percent did not answer.

"In the semi-open question, Prabowo has experienced a significant increase in support to 20 percent. Other names have also emerged but by a significant margin under Prabowo", said SMRC Executive Director Sirojudin Abbas on Thursday, April 1.

However, if in a limited format only 15 names of figures, Prabowo's electability did not increase significantly. Prabowo has the support of 20.8 percent, Anies 13.1 percent, Ganjar 12 percent, Sandiaga 7.4 percent, Ridwan Kamil 6.7 percent, and the rest is under 6 percent.

If the format is changed again, the number of candidates is 15 candidates, Prabowo will be the highest again, but the number of support has not changed significantly, still as the result of semi-open questions. Only up 0.8 percent is not significant. The highest increase was achieved by Ganjar with an increase of 3.2 percent.

"This means that Prabowo cannot attract voters who previously chose other names that were issued from the semi-open list to become 15 names", explained Abbas.

Most of Jokowi's supporters have switched to Ganjar

Jokowi received the most support through open questions (top of mind). Then, the SMRC removed Jokowi's name from the survey options.

The SMRC studied the level of recognition of each presidential candidate. There are seven figures known by more than 50 percent of the population, namely Prabowo, Sandiaga Uno, Anies Baswedan, AHY, Puan Maharani, Ridwan Kamil, and Ganjar Pranowo.

Among the respondents who knew the names of the seven figures, they were asked who would be elected president. It turns out that Ganjar's name is always in the top rank if Jokowi's name is not included.

If the seven names were equally well known by voters, the support moved mostly to Ganjar (18.4 percent), then Anies (15.2 percent), and Ridwan Kamil (13.1 percent). Prabowo is only in fifth place (9.2 percent).

"Voters who loyal to Jokowi tend to go to Ganjar. Those who think positively of various government performances also tend to Ganjar. Ganjar has the most potential to accommodate Jokowi's voters", said Sirojudin.