Economist: If Iran-Israel Conflict Gets More Intense, World Oil And Gold Prices Will Rise

JAKARTA - Economist Josua Pardede said the Iran and Israel conflict if it escalated would trigger an increase in world oil and gold prices.

"The war will not only disrupt production, but also distribution channels. This situation will trigger a spike in oil prices," said Josua, quoted from Antara, Wednesday, April 17.

The head of Bank Permata economist said that currently the price of Brent crude has reached around 90 US dollars per barrel.

Iran is one of the largest oil producers in the world with production of around 3.9 million barrels per day, with oil exports reaching 1.29 million barrels per day in 2023.

Indonesia is one of the largest crude oil importers in ASEAN so that it will be affected if there is a significant increase in world oil prices.

Josua estimates that the price of gold will last and will even continue to increase above $ 2,000 per ounce as investors seek safe haven assets amid rising global economic and financial market uncertainty due to the rise of conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the prices of coal and crude palm oil (CPO) are not affected by the current development of crude crude oil prices.

The price of coal on April 12, 2024, was recorded at 129.3 US dollars per tonne, showing a decrease of 11.7 percent year to date (ytd), in line with China's estimated economic slowdown which consumes about 50 percent of world coal consumption.

On the other hand, the price of CPO on April 12, 2024 was recorded at 1,060 US dollars per tonne, up 13.4 percent ytd, with an increase in prices caused by El Nino's impact on production.