Ahead Of The Fed Congress, Rupiah Potentially Strengthens

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, March 7, 2024, is expected to move again higher against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Wednesday, March 6, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed up 0.42 percent Rp15,705 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.21 percent to a price level of Rp15,723 per US dollar.

Director of PT.Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said the market is currently awaiting testimony from the Chairman of The Fed Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, March 6. This is related to further signs regarding the US interest rate.

"Powell is expected to maintain its hawkish rhetoric and provide a slight signal about lower interest rates, especially as US inflation is still stagnant," he said in a statement quoted on Thursday, March 7.

According to him, some Fed officials have also warned in recent weeks that the Fed is not in a hurry to start cutting its interest rates.

However, despite the uncertainty ahead of Powell's meeting, most traders remain at their stake that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in June, according to the CME Fedwatch.

Meanwhile, this week's focus is also on nonfarm payroll data for February. The US employment figure for February has the potential to shake the market on Friday.

Economists expect workers' recruitment to slow down last month, but a larger amount than expected could increase the dollar increase this year.

From an internal point of view, the Indonesian economy has the potential to grow to 5.15 percent in 2024. This growth projection is higher than the growth projection for the previous year of 5.06 percent.

Meanwhile, challenges in 2024 still come from global, such as the United States (US) and China trade wars, the slowdown in China's economy, to the decline in commodity prices in the global market.

In addition, the risks that still overshadow are still high global benchmark interest rates if the world inflation rate has not dropped to a low level. The risks to watch out for.

Indonesia's economic growth in 2023, which grew 5.05 percent, is one of the best in the world. Compared to other developing countries, this economic growth is less than India, which grew above 6 percent.

Ibrahim said that this strong economic growth is one of the attractions for many investors to enter Indonesia.

Previously, Bank Indonesia (BI), said that the 2024 general election (Pemilu) with one round that had taken place was expected to boost economic growth this year.

This optimistic economic growth will be driven by exports and also from domestic consumption, especially consumed by medium and upper levels. Then, from investment not only for construction but also for non-construction.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher on trading Thursday, March 7 in the price range of IDR 15,680 - IDR 15,740 per US dollar.