Jokowi's Choice (can) Be Defeated

JAKARTA Jokowi is the most accomplished politician in Indonesia today. Five fights, five wins. Once in Solo, once in DKI Jakarta, and twice in the presidential election.

That was the sentence that was uttered by the Chairman of the PPP Party Advisory Council, Muhammad Romahurmuziy regarding the work of President Joko Widodo or Jokowi in the country's political arena. Romy's statement, Romahurmuziy's nickname, came out following the withdrawal of Jokowi's influence ahead of the 2024 presidential election before Gibran Rakabuming Raka officially became Prabowo Subianto's companion.

The level of public satisfaction, which is said to range from 60 to 70 percent, the 'fanaticism' of volunteer groups to strong power as heads of state, is a factor that Romi considers to be the reason Jokowi can determine the results of the 2024 presidential election even though he cannot run again.

Initially, after declaring Ganjar Pranowo as a presidential candidate in 2024, the PDI-P and other supporting political parties including PPP still believed that Jokowi, who incidentally was behind Ganjar.

Various endorsements such as frequent appearances with Ganjar at various events, including a conjectured statement in the style of Jokowi which said that the next president with white hair was increasingly raising optimism if the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia remained in the ranks of PDIP et al.

However, the political constellation suddenly changed after Gibran was proposed by Prabowo as vice president in the 2024 presidential election. Despite being marked by ethical issues that dragged the Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court at that time, Anwar Usman and later also the Chairman of the General Election Commission, Hasyim Asy'ari, Jokowi's eldest son's path remained smooth to compete in the presidential election.

Although he never made it clear, Gibran's presence as Prabowo's vice presidential candidate seemed to be a light in which line Jokowi would be in the 2024 presidential election. With the various results of the electability survey that put the Prabowo-Gibran pair at the top, plus Jokowi's support, will the Paslon 02 win the 2024 presidential election?

Political observer Eep Saefulloh Fatah revealed that when viewed directly from a contestation perspective, Romi's statement was indeed true. Jokowi was able to win the Surakarta Pilkada, the DKI Jakarta Pilkada and won twice in the presidential election.

But, continued Eep, the public should also not forget the contestation in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Pilkada. At that time, Jokowi was not directly involved as a candidate. The public believes that Jokowi will dominate and support Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok compared to its competitors, namely Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

"We already know together where Anies won the DKI Jakarta Regional Election after defeating Ahok in the second round. This means that if Jokowi directly contests, he never loses. But, when he loses someone else, the candidate supported by Jokowi can be defeated," he continued.

Don't Forget History

The condition of the 2024 presidential election is similar to the 2017 DKI Jakarta Pilkada. There were three pairs of candidates who contested, and candidates who were considered to have received endorsements from Jokowi were ranked the top in various survey results. Like the 2024 presidential election, in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Pilkada there was also confidence that the Ahok and Djarot pairs were able to win in one round.

"We often forget, in every election there will be political scaling ahead of voting. In 2017, we still remember there was the 212 Movement, and now there are many voices from various academic community," he said.

The founder of the PolMark Research Center added that the current situation made it difficult for the Prabowo-Gibran pair to win in one round in the presidential election. He said, from a survey conducted on January 14-25, 2024 against 2,600 respondents throughout Indonesia, the majority were still thinking carefully about choosing the existing presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Based on the PolMark survey, continued Eep, 25 percent of voters are still unstable or have not made their choice until now and 14 percent of them are still considering their choice until they are close to voting day on February 14, 2024.

In our last national survey with 2,600 respondents, there is still 25 percent of voters who will decide after all the debate they watch, finally, after February 4, it's already tight, 10 days of voting. Then there are those who make a choice after the campaign is over, that's February 10. It's only four days left for H to vote in peace time 11, 12, 13 February, and the biggest one is on day H, 14 percent more, the combination is 25 percent," he explained.

Eep stated, in the democratic election process, there are three groups that play a role, namely stars, determinants and referees or organizers. Bintang is a candidate who is highlighted by the camera, appears on the stage of debate, is emblazoned on billboards and banners and appears on television.

However, the determinant of the real election victory is the second, or everyone who comes to the polling station (TPS). Because when we enter the polling booth, we practically do not face the president, with the police, with the army, social assistance has passed. This is voter, this cannot be the decision formulated now, they will decide," he added.

Eep also said that the presidential election fight in the second round would be fierce. He predicts that the parties carrying Anies and Ganjar will form a coalition. PDIP's resistance to PKS will not be hindered because the repulsive force to join the Prabowo camp is greater," he said.

Claims Of Winning One Round To Each Other

A different opinion was put forward by the Executive Director of Indo Barometer, Muhammad Qodari. He considered that the participation of Prabowo-Gibran supporters was able to win the candidate pair number 02 in one round. This is also reinforced by Prabowo-Gibran's increasing electability in a number of survey institutions.

In addition, the joining of a number of key figures such as the Governor of East Java Khofifah Indar Parawansa, former PDIP politician Maruarar Sirait, to the Minister of SOEs Erick Thohir to the ranks of supporters of Prabowo-Gibran can also increase the electoral strength of candidate pair number 02.

"So now we need a game changer for one round. The need for today is only 3 to 4 percent. Save me, a figure with extraordinary popularity, with very deep roots like Mrs. Khofifah, can attract one to 2 percent, just like Mr. Ara, who has an extraordinary network in West Java, then a long time at the PDI-P," he said.

"Moreover, Mr. Erick Thohir, he has fans. He has a Nahdlatul Ulama sound pool, has a football fan voice pool, has a South Sumatra sound pool. Moreover, his popularity is increasing because Indonesia has qualified for the second round of the Asian Cup," continued Qodari.

However, to realize the one-round presidential election, Prabowo-Gibran supporters must come to the TPS in February 14 to use their voting rights to vote for image number 02.

"The important thing is that later the 02 supporters on D-day have to come. Don't come, because coming doesn't come, it determines the results of the vote or victory. So we have to synchronize between the results of the survey with the final result on the 14th and that's the way to do it by coming to the TPS," said Qodari.