Bitcoin Recovers After Drop, Will Bull Run Start?

JAKARTA - Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have risen from the sharp decline it experienced a week ago. While the price of BTC is still volatile, market interest in cryptocurrencies has not subsided.

According to a weekly report from the CryptoQuant on-chain analysis platform, cited by CryptoPotato, the price of BTC is likely to have hit its lowest point. It is based on several indicators, such as Coinbase's negative premium, miners' low pay, and zero profit margin from short-term holders.

The price of Bitcoin had touched its lowest level in the last two months at $38,000 on January 23. This price is considered to be still relatively cheap in its short-term decline. This can be seen from Coinbase's negative premium, which shows that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on the crypto exchange compared to other exchanges.

In addition, Bitcoin miners are also getting very low pay. This may have triggered selling pressure from miners, which caused the biggest sales wave since May 2023 a few days ago.

Another factor that shows Bitcoin's undervaluation is the profit margin that has not been realized from short-term holders. This margin is down to 0%, which means they are selling their Bitcoins with a loss for the first time since October. However, CryptoQuant believes that this is actually a criterion for Bitcoin to continue its rise.

Bitcoin Ready To Rise?

After Bitcoin surged to the level of US$43,000 (Rp 678 million) on January 29, purchase demand increased in the futures contract market. Traders closed their selling positions for fear of falling behind price increases. This can be seen from the buying and selling ratio of takers that rose above one for the first time since early December.

While Bitcoin is still at around $42,100 at the time of writing, CryptoQuant is optimistic that the second half of this year will witness a major return from this cryptocurrency. It is based on historical patterns, in which the first half of the year after the distribution of gifts is usually flat to slightly negative for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, interest in Bitcoin remains positive. The "whale" or large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, increasing their holdings to reach their highest level since December 2022. In addition, Grayscale's outflow from ETF funds has eased recently, with purchases from other products, particularly BlackRock and Fidelity, offsetting the sale.

Most importantly, the total Bitcoin ownership of nine other spot ETFs has grown to a new level above 150,000.

Meanwhile, stablecoin liquidity is also positive, with the market capitalization of Tether (USDT) hitting a new record of 96 billion US dollars (Rp 1.5 trillion), with a daily increase of 800 million US dollars (Rp 12.6 trillion) on January 22.