Market Analysts Predict Bitcoin Prices Could Fall To 15,000 US Dollars

JAKARTA - Bitcoin, the world's most popular cryptocurrency, faces major challenges in 2024. In addition to anticipating a halving event that has the potential to affect supply and demand, bitcoin must also be aware of the risk of a decline in the global stock market.

One of the market analysts expressing this concern is Gareth Soloway, head of the market strategy at verifiedinvesting.com. In an interview with Kitco News, Soloway conveyed his predictions about bitcoin's future trends and prospects.

Soloway said bitcoin has a positive correlation with the stock market, especially the S&P 500 index which reflects the performance of major companies in the United States. If the stock market experiences a significant correction or decline, bitcoin is likely to be corrected.

"If we look at the 50% drop in the stock market, I see bitcoin retesting that level of $15,000 (Rp237 million)," Soloway said.

Soloway's prediction is quite pessimistic, considering the current price of bitcoin is still above $42,000 (Rp 664 million), although it had fallen below $40,000 (Rp 632 million) in early January 2024. Soloway assessed that bitcoin's previous decline was triggered by several factors, such as the exit of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Coinbase's primary public offering (IPO), the largest crypto exchange in the US, in 2021.

Soloway explained that the two events created euphoria and the peak demand for bitcoin, which was followed by a decline. He added that many smart investors took advantage of this momentum to buy bitcoin before Coinbase's IPO and sell it after the IPO. In addition, the large discount offered by GBTC is also an attraction for investors.

However, Soloway is not completely bearable for bitcoin. He acknowledged that bitcoin has a high long-term growth potential, especially with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Trad Fund) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10, 2024.

Bitcoin ETF is an investment product that allows investors to buy bitcoin without having to own or store it directly. Bitcoin ETF is expected to increase bitcoin liquidity and accessibility, as well as attract institutional and retail investors.

Soloway said it would increase bitcoin ownership if prices continued to decline. He also reminded that bitcoin will be halving in mid-2024, which is a hal reduction in the amount of bitcoin given to miners in return. Halving is believed to increase bitcoin value as it reduces supply and increases scarcity.

Soloway is not the only analyst to give predictions about bitcoin. A survey conducted by Deutsche Bank involving more than 2,000 respondents shows that a third of them expect bitcoin to fall below 220,000 (IDR 316 million) by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, 15% of respondents estimate bitcoin will be in the range of 40.000 to $7.000 (IDR 632 million to IDR 1.2 billion).

In addition, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of Bitmex, one of the world's largest crypto derivative trading platforms, predicts bitcoin could hit a low of 350,000 to $35,000 (IDR 474 million to IDR 553 million) before the rebound. Hayes is also optimistic that bitcoin could reach 100.000 (IDR 1.6 billion) by the end of 2024.