Indicator Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Stagnant Electability, AMIN Rises, Ganjar-Mahfud Down

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Indicators survey institute released the electability of the presidential and vice presidential pairs in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, candidate pair number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, won from two other candidate pairs with an electability rate of 45.79 percent.

While candidate pair number 1, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar are in second place with an electability rate of 25.47 percent. Meanwhile, Paslon number 3, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD is in third place with 22.96 percent.

"Prabowo-Gibran excels significantly from Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud," said the Executive Director of the Indonesian Political Indicators Survey Institute, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Thursday, January 18.

Burhanuddin said there was a stagnation in the electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair from the results of the previous survey. Meanwhile, Anies-Imin, experienced an increase and the Ganjar-Mahfud trend decreased.

"This is a survey before the third presidential candidate debate. So if we compare it, compared to last month's survey, electability stagnation occurred for couples 02. There is positive dynamics Anies Baswedan up to 25 percent, negative trend 03 is still continuing," he said.

If the stagnation of Prabowo-Gibran continues to the following month, Burhanuddin predicts that the 2024 presidential election will take place in two rounds. On the other hand, if there is an upward trend, it is possible that the 02 pair will win in one round.

"Does the stagnation 02 continue until next month? If so, it means that the possibility of 2 rounds is open. But if for example an extraordinary incident occurs, it means the possibility of 1 round is still open for candidate pair 02," he said.

"What I can conclude is that 1 round is not certain, 2 rounds are not necessarily, but if 2 rounds occur, it is likely that candidate pair number 2 will pass, which is not clear who will accompany Prabowo-Gibran if there are two rounds," continued Burhanuddin.

For information, the Indonesian Political Indicators survey was held from December 30 to January 6 before the third debate of the 2024 presidential election. The survey involved a base of 1,200 people from all provinces of Indonesia through face-to-face interviews.

In addition to 1,200 samples, Political Indicators also added respondents in 13 provinces, namely Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Lampung, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Banten, Bali, NTT, North Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. So that the total respondents became 4,560.

Assuming the stratified random sampling method, the base sample size is 4,560 respondents have a margin of error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.