Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Can Reach $1 Million Amid Geopolitical Tensions
JAKARTA - Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, is optimistic that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a value of US$1 million (around Rp15.9 billion) amid global economic and political turmoil. In his blog entitled "The Periphery", he explains the reasons that support his views.
According to Hayes, the current global situation is very risky. The United States (US) is involved in two conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, which could trigger global escalation. Bitcoin, as a digital asset that does not depend on central authorities, is a kind of alarm for financial markets about the impact of this instability.
Hayes also criticized U.S.'s non-responsive monetary policy against rising inflation. The US Central Bank (Federal Reserve) chose to hold back interest rates, despite signs of a "bear Steepener" showing an economic slowdown.
Hayes considers this an opportunity for US military banks and industries to leverage the US bond market to protect themselves from risk and finance their activities.
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Hayes considers that Bitcoin has shown good performance in the midst of this situation. In one week, the price of Bitcoin rose 15% in BTC/USD. This increase coincided with US President Joe Biden's speech on the conflict in Israel and Ukraine. After the speech, Bitcoin and gold, which are traditional hedge assets, are equally strengthened.
Hayes believes that Bitcoin still has the potential to rise higher in the long term. It targets the price of 1 million US dollars per BTC as a final destination. It also sees several other positive factors that could support the price of Bitcoin, such as Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and Half Bitcoin in April 2024.
For information, ETF is an investment product that allows investors to buy Bitcoin without having to own the digital asset directly. The institutional demand for ETF is very high, especially from big companies like BlackRock.
Meanwhile, Halving Bitcoin is a process of reducing the number of new Bitcoins in the form of rewards for miners. Haling aims to maintain the scarcity of Bitcoin and prevent inflation. Halving usually has a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin as it reduces supply while demand remains high.