Faisal Basri Says High Speed ​​Trains Need 139 Years to Make a Profit, Special Staff Erick Thohir Opens Up

JAKARTA - Special Staff to the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) Arya Sinulingga has spoken out regarding economist Faisal Basri's statement which estimates that the return on investment for the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Train project will take 139 years.

He believes that Faisal Basri should be more comprehensive in carrying out calculations.

Furthermore, Arya said, Faisal also did not include the potential increase in people's income in his calculations.

Including the improvement of the Indonesian economy, as well as people's purchasing power which will increase in the future.

"We also have to look at inflation, increasing income, economic conditions are getting better, macro changes are getting better, people are becoming more prosperous and prosperous so their purchasing power is high," said Arya at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, Wednesday, October 18.

For example, continued Arya, train ticket prices in 1970 were certainly different from current train fares.

In fact, said Arya, ticket prices this year will also be different from 2090.

Because of this, Arya said that this error in calculations was unwise in seeing the benefits of the presence of the Jakarta-Bandung Fast Train or Whoosh project.

“Will ticket prices be the same in 2023 as in 2090? "Faisal Basri's calculations are the same, that's why his calculations will not reach a century," said Arya.

Previously, Indef senior economist Faisal Basri said that based on his calculations, the return on investment for the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Train project was based on his calculations.

If the train is 100 percent full in one series, there are 601 passengers boarding from 05.00 a.m. to 22.00 p.m., then there will be 36 trips.

The other components are a one way fare of IDR 300,000 and the train operates throughout the year, namely 365 days. Then, the investment value after cost increases is 8 billion US dollars or around IDR 114 trillion, assuming an exchange rate of IDR 14,300 per US dollar.

If the seats are fully occupied by 601 people, multiplied by the number of trips 36 times 365 days and multiplied by the fare of IDR 300,000, then the time required for this project to return on investment is 48.3 years.

Meanwhile, if it is 75 percent filled, this project will only be able to recover its investment for 64 years. Meanwhile, if there are only 30 trips in one day, the return on investment will only be 77.3 years.

In fact, said Faisal, if the fare was reduced to IDR 250,000 for one trip because it was not selling well, then this project would only be able to recover its investment in 92.7 years.

He said, if the passenger occupancy rate is only 50 percent with 30 trips and the ticket price is IDR 250,000, it will take 139 years to recover the investment.