Russia Again Changes War Command Structure in Ukraine, Chief of Military Staff Leads Directly: Because of Tactics, Criticism or Intrigue?

JAKARTA - Russia through the Ministry of Defense has again made changes to the command structure for special military operations in Ukraine, with the highest military general directly involved in leading the operation.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov on Wednesday to oversee the military campaign in Ukraine, in the latest reshuffle of Moscow's military leadership, according to Russia's Defense Ministry as reported by Reuters Jan. 12.

The Ministry of Defense explained that the new designation in special military operations in Ukraine is related to a wider scope of tasks and the need for closer coordination between all branches and services of the military.

"Higher levels of military command in special military operations, related to the wider scope of missions handled in its course, the need to organize closer coordination between the military branches and services of the armed forces, as well as the improvement of the quality of all types of logistics, support and efficiency in command and control of the troop group (troops)", the ministry said, citing TASS.

In the new structure, the Chief of the General Staff General of the Army Valery Gerasimov was appointed commander of the unified group of troops. The deputies are Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force General Sergey Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces General Oleg Salyukov, and also Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Colonel General Alexey Kim", the ministry said.

Entering its eleventh month, Russia's military campaign in Ukraine, which began on February 24 last year, did not go as smoothly as expected and drew much criticism.

Surovikin himself was previously appointed commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine last October. Like the previous changes, this time it was said that there was no upheaval.

"The generals were transferred, shuffled from front to headquarters. From headquarters to front. Surovikin went unpunished and Gerasimov went unpunished. All one team. Of course with competition, which always happens", Russian television commentator Sergey Markov said on Telegram, as quoted by CNN.

Some analysts believe the move may also be an attempt by the ministry to exert tighter control over the campaign ahead of the critical months in which the remaining reservists mobilized in autumn 2022 will be deployed after training.

Mark Galeotti, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said "it was a sort of demotion (for Gerasimov). It's up to him now, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations anymore."

While Rob Lee of King's College London tweeted, Wednesday's announcement "reaffirms the Ministry of Defense's position on overseeing the war... it may also be partly a response to the increasingly influential role of the Wagner Group and the public in the war."

Wagner's boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was very outspoken and visible on the front lines, as his private army was prominently involved in the assault on the town of Soledar in the eastern region of Donetsk. He has repeatedly said, Wagner mercenary warriors are exclusively responsible for the advancement in the Soledar region.

It is known that Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu have a long history of differences. Prigozhin praised General Surovikin, however, for organizing the orderly withdrawal of Russian troops in the southern Kherson region, as their position became increasingly untenable.

In November, Prigozhin said on his Telegram channel: "The general must win victory after victory every day. To whom can Surovikin be compared? Surovikin is honest and principled, he is trusted by the army."

Wednesday's announcement follows news of Colonel-General Alexander Lapin's appointment as Chief of the Army General Staff, following his removal from the post of commander of the Central Military District in October.

Both Prigozhin and Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov singled out Lapin for criticism. "It's not just that Lapin is worthless. It's a fact that he is protected by the leaders in the General Staff", Kadyrov wrote on his Telegram channel in October last year.

It said Gerasimov's appointment was likely on President Putin's orders, unimaginable without his approval.

Dara Massicot, a senior research fellow at the Rand Corporation, said the Ministry of Defense is “demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing them with the incompetent. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy.”

He said that while Surovikin did not commit any strategic mistakes, Shoigu and Gerasimov were to blame for the poor campaign planning.

"They failed. They signed off on a secret plan, lots of bad assumptions, and didn't tell the majority of their troops. (It) led to heavy casualties and a partially damaged force", Massicot tweeted.

Meanwhile, a prominent military blogger who posted on the Telegram messaging app under the name Rybar said Surovikin, a veteran of Russia's campaigns in Chechnya and Syria, was the victim of a series of recent Russian military failures, including the Ukrainian attack on Russian barracks in the town of Makiivka. that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers on New Year's.

Separately, Ukraine's military said it was anticipating a new Russian offensive in early spring. The overall military commander in Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist in December: "They (Russian forces) are 100 percent prepared."

A major Russian offensive could happen "in February, at best in March and at worst in late January", he said.