North Korea Postpones Nuclear Tests, Expert: Maybe China's Pressure, Russia's Displeasure to US Counterattack

JAKARTA - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has yet to press the nuclear button, despite urgent warnings from South Korean and US intelligence authorities that North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test.

Diplomatic observers agree a nuclear test is imminent. But they believe the delay may be due to pressure from China or because Pyongyang is weighing possible political repercussions.

Citing comments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Eighth Labor Party Conference in January 2021, his country will increase its nuclear and missile capabilities.

Following the launch of 31 various types of missiles so far this year and the reconstruction of its nuclear test site, Joseph DeTrani, the former US special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, said the reclusive nation was ready for a seventh nuclear test.

However, DeTrani said pressure from China may be behind the delayed nuclear test, as rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula with South Korea and the United States are not in Beijing's best interest.

China is North Korea's only economic channel and diplomatic custodian, preventing the United Nations Security Council from imposing sanctions on the totalitarian state for its provocations.

"China may encourage North Korea to refrain from another nuclear test, worried that the reaction of the United States and South Korea could further worsen relations with North Korea and bring greater tension to the Korean Peninsula, with the possibility of accidental conflict", he said, reported the Korea Times June 23.

"China does not want greater tension, and even conflict on the Korean Peninsula, given the myriad issues on Chinese President Xi Jinping's plate, which require immediate attention", DeTrani added.

Separately, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, also expressed a similar view on China's role.

"I imagine China is trying to pressure North Korea not to carry out any more nuclear tests because that would bring more instability to the region", he said.

“So maybe Kim should consider the extent to which he wants to anger China with a new test. Neither Beijing nor Moscow will allow new UN Security Council sanctions to be imposed on North Korea, but China remains Pyongyang's main economic lifeline, so Kim has to maintain good relations with him", added Pacheco Pardo.

Amid growing concerns over a possible North Korean nuclear test, the US administration has recently discussed the issue with China, according to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who held discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Europe earlier this month.

Plus, the South Korean Presidential Office also seems to believe that China played a role in North Korea pushing back on nuclear tests.

Along with the Chinese variable, the North Korean leader appears to be weighing the political repercussions of another nuclear test, which would be the first since 2017, according to experts.

"I really think that Kim Jong-un hasn't decided whether the benefits of a new nuclear test outweigh the costs", Pacheco Pardo said.

According to experts, the main benefit for North Korea from its seventh nuclear test is a continuous technological improvement.

"But the potential costs include new sanctions from South Korea and the US, pushing back the possibility of diplomacy with them, with China and Russia being displeased by the instability a test would cause."

He also said the North Korean leader tried to present his country as a responsible nuclear power in 2017, but carrying out tests would undermine that claim.

"If Kim really wanted to carry out a nuclear test without a doubt, he would have done it. So why do I think he is hesitating", he added.

Bruce Bennett, a senior international defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, speculated that North Korean scientists had not yet finalized the nuclear weapon he wanted to test.

"Kim knows that he can only test a small number of nuclear weapons without really serious U.S. retaliation, and even one test could lead to serious retaliation. So he may be trying to have a weapon worth testing, and his scientists may not provide it. that", said Bennett.

Bennett also said Kim often waits for the right time to initiate major provocations.

"He may be waiting for certain anniversaries or other events (for example, July 4, when his father tested ballistic missiles in 2006 and 2009), or to retaliate against some alleged US abuses", he added.