Task Force Predicts Third Wave Of COVID-19 Cases To Increase By 70-400 Thousand

JAKARTA - The COVID-19 Handling Task Force predicts that the potential increase in the third wave of active COVID-19 cases during the Christmas and New Year holidays could reach 400,000 using the worst-case scenario and 70,000 with the moderate scenario.

Head of the Data and IT Division of the Covid-19 Handling Task Force, Dr. Dewi Nur Aisyah said the prediction of the potential increase in COVID-19 cases was carried out using data and variables related to handling COVID-19 in Indonesia and modeling using artificial intelligence.

In the most ideal scenario, namely, where group immunity has been established, mobility is low, compliance with health protocols is high, and there are no new variants, then active cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia are predicted to remain sloping and even decline until early next year.

However, this scenario has been eliminated because a new variant of Omicron has emerged and herd immunity has not yet been established in December 2021.

While the second scenario shows the potential for an increase in active cases with a peak of around 70 thousand cases with the condition of group immunity not yet formed, population mobility is high, and compliance with health protocols is quite good in the community.

"Group immunity has not been established because looking at the current data in December, 70 percent has not yet been caught, so herd immunity is not yet available, mobility is high, but compliance with health protocols is quite good, so that's why it goes up, but the peak of cases is around 70,000 cases," said Dewi.

The third scenario is if group immunity has not been formed, mobility is high, adherence to health protocols is low, the peak of the third wave of cases is predicted to be around 260 thousand cases.

The comparison of the prediction of the peak number of the third wave of cases with the second and third scenarios is quite far apart, which is almost 200 thousand cases, the difference is the level of compliance with health protocols. Therefore, Dewi emphasized that the community should remain disciplined in implementing health protocols so that there will not be a significant increase in the number of cases.

Meanwhile, the worst-case scenario is if herd immunity has not been established, community mobility is high, compliance with health protocols is low, and there is a new variant in Indonesia where the infection rate is 40 percent to 50 percent more infectious than the previous one.

The worst-case scenario is predicted to increase active cases to 400,000 at its peak.

Dewi explained that the peak potential for active cases in the event of a third wave is predicted to remain lower than the spike in cases in mid-2021.

This is due to the wider scope of COVID-19 vaccination in the community today compared to the middle of last year.