IPN Survey: Prabowo Subianto Superior Head To Head With Ganjar And Anies Baswedan

Prabowo Subianto/DOK personal Instagram

JAKARTA - The National Public Indicator Research Institute (IPN) released the results of an electability survey of national figures in the 2024 presidential election contestation.

IPN senior researcher Ike Sihotang explained that the survey was conducted to measure the electability of the names of top of the mind figures as candidates for president in the 2024 presidential election.

The names that appeared were still dominated by three names, namely Prabowo Subianto in first place, followed by Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan in third.

"In the simulation of the top three presidential candidates, Prabowo still did not budge in the first position with 42.3 percent of support. Followed by Ganjar Pranowo with 37.4 percent and the third position by Anies with 17.96 percent of support. While only 3.3 percent claimed they had no choice at all," Ike explained in a written statement, Monday, July 10.

In addition to electability variables, IPN also measures the popularity or level of recognition and also likeability or liking. Some names of figures are included in the radar, but Prabowo Subianto is still ranked first in the two variables.

"Prabowo is still ranked first, both at the 91.7 percent (popularity) and at the 79.2 percent preference level of presidential candidates raised in this survey," said Ike.

In the popularity variable, the second position is occupied by PPP politician Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno with 90.7 percent gain. Followed by Anies Baswedan with a score of 82.1 percent and the fourth podium, namely Ganjar Pranowo, at 82.0 percent.

However, for preferred variables, Prabowo is in first place with a score of 79.2 percent.

In second place, Anies Baswedan with 60.7 percent. Followed by Ganjar in third place with a score of 60.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the electability variable for Sandiaga Uno was at 37.9 percent, losing to Ridwan Kamil who got 40.6 percent and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) at 38.4 percent.

"(Sandiaga) lost to Anies, Ganjar, Ridwan Kamil and AHY at the level of preference. The third and fourth positions were occupied by Anies and Ganjar," said Ike.

In addition to measuring the electability of the names of national figures for the 2024 presidential candidate, IPJN measures through a survey of figures who are considered the most suitable to accompany the three top of mind names.

For the potential name of the potential vice presidential candidate for Prabowo Subianto, the name Erick Thohir appeared with a score of 20.6 percent. Then there was Gibran Rakabuming Raka with a score of 19.1 percent.

Followed by Muhaimin Iskandar alias Cak Imin with 8.7 percent. Then, in fourth place there are Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Ridwan Kamil, each of whom is at 8.0 percent.

Meanwhile, Golkar Chairman Airlangga Hartarto was sixth with 4.3 percent and Mahfud MD at 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, 28.0 percent of the undecidend votes.

For the names of national figures who have the potential to become vice presidential candidates to accompany Ganjar Pranowo, namely Sandiaga Uno with 14.7 percent.

Furthermore, there is Ridwan Kamil with 13.5 percent followed by Erick Thohir with 11.7 percent.

Furthermore, in fourth place was Puan Maharani with 7.9 percent and then followed by General TNI (Ret.) Andika Case with 7.2 percent.

Then there is Mahfud MD with 4.3 percent and General (ret) Budi Gunawan with 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, for the undecidend voters as much as 38.2 percent.

Furthermore, the names of national figures have the potential to become Anies Baswedan's vice president. The highest name is AHY with 17.7 percent, followed by Khofifah Indar Parawansa with 13.0 percent.

Third place is PKS politician Ahmad Heryawan with 4.8 percent and followed by Yenny Wahid with 4.2 percent. In fifth place is Ridwan Kamil with 3.9 percent.

After that there was Mahfud MD with 3.7 percent and Habib Salim Segaf Aljufri with 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, for the undecided voters as much as 49.2 percent.

In addition, IPN also measures the potential for victory for the presidential candidate. Prabowo is superior head to head with Anies or Ganjar.

For Prabowo vs Ganjar, the percentage is 52.1 percent vs 38.5 percent with an undecidend voters of 9.4 percent. Meanwhile, for Prabowo vs Anies, the score is 51.4 percent vs 31.9 percent with an undecidend voters of 16.7 percent.

"So with this data, of course Prabowo will come out as the winner in the 2024 presidential election even if the data for the undecidend voters or voters who have not made their choice prefers to be on his opponent's side, both Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo," Ike said explaining the survey results.

"The survey findings also show Prabowo coming out as the winner when dealing head to head with Anies. 51.4 percent is an absolute achievement obtained by Prabowo, so that even if those who have not made the choice are achieved entirely by Anies, they will still not be able to beat Prabowo," he continued.

The IPN survey was conducted in the period 17-27 June 2023 involving 1,200 respondents from 34 provinces who already have voting rights or at least 17 years old.

The methodology used is multistage random side with a margin of error (MoE) of 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.