LSI Survey: Prabowo Wins In Various 2 Round Presidential Election Simulations

Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The survey results of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) show that Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is superior in various simulations of two rounds of presidential elections (pilpres).

"In the simulation of the second round, both one name and partner simulations, Prabowo Subianto tends to always excel," said LSI Director Djayadi Hanan in the Release of LSI National Survey Results: "Electoral Map of the Presidential Election and Anticipation of the Second Round" reported by ANTARA, Wednesday, May 3.

In a closed simulation of two names between former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan against Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Ganjar Pranowo won with an electability of 46.7 percent, and Anies Baswedan's electability reached 39.2 percent. A total of 14.1 percent did not know or did not answer.

"The distance between Ganjar and Anies is more than 6 percent. It is statistically significant, but Ganjar has not yet received 50 percent," said Djayadi.

Thus, 14.1 percent of the votes that stated they did not know or did not answer became significant to determine Ganjar's superiority over Anies Baswedan.

On the other hand, in Anies' simulation against Prabowo, LSI showed Prabowo was superior with electability reaching 51.7 percent.

"The advantage is significant for Anies, because Anies is at around 36 percent," said Djayadi.

Prabowo's potential victory, if based on this data, is quite large because Prabowo has reached the figure above 50 percent.

"So if the 12.5 percent who stated that they had not made a choice all moved to Anies, then Anies' figure would still be below 50 percent," he explained.

On the other hand, if Ganjar faces Prabowo, the LSI survey shows that Prabowo excels with an electability of 49.2 percent, while Ganjar reaches 39.7 percent.

"The result is significant compared to Ganjar, almost 10 percent of the distance. However, there are still 11.1 percent who have not made a choice. So, because it has not reached 50 percent, Prabowo's position is not yet safe here, even though the potential for victory is great," said Djayadi.

The LSI survey was conducted on respondents who had the right to vote, namely those who were over 17 years old. The survey sample was randomly selected (multistage random sampling) and involved 1,220 respondents. Survey data were taken on April 12-17, 2023.

The margin of error survey is estimated at approximately 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Interviews with respondents were conducted face-to-face by interviewers who were trained.