Observer Predictions: Three Or Four Coalitions Will Appear After Ganjar Pranowo Candidate For PDIP

Ganjar Pranowo together with President Joko Widodo and Megawati Soekarnoputri after being appointed as Indonesian Presidential Candidates by PDIP. (Between/Monang)

Political observer from Paramadina University, Ahmad Khoirul Umam predicts that three to four coalitions will be formed after PDIP officially carries Ganjar Pranowo as a presidential candidate (candidate) for the 2024 Presidential Election.

Umam explained that PDIP will have a strong position to form its own axis without having to join a major coalition that is planned to be a combination of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), and the Greater Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR).

"Super-large coalition consolidation between the major coalition plus PDIP is almost certain to fail so that PDIP will advance separately from the major coalition, which could open up the possibility of the formation of three presidential coalition axes," said Khoirul Umam when contacted in Jakarta, Saturday as quoted by Antara.

He added that if a large internal coalition, which has not yet been officially formed, is also broken due to stagnant negotiations, then there is an opportunity for four presidential candidate coalitions to form.

The four coalitions are likely the PDIP axis, a major coalition, a major coalition fraction, and the Change Coalition, which currently consists of the Democratic Party, PKS, and NasDem.

Umam, who also serves as Executive Director of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (IndoStrategic), believes that the support of Ganjar Pranowo as a presidential candidate is PDIP's quick response to pressure from a number of political parties supporting the government.

"Ganjar's candidacy by PDIP means closing the opportunity for political negotiations to be carried out by a large coalition commanded by Gerindra. This means that Prabowo's presidential candidate proposal was strongly rejected by PDIP. Thus, Ganjar's candidacy is a quick response from the start that he was well aware that he was surrounded by parties in the circle. The hang Palace has accumulated 49.3 percent of the strength of the parliamentary seat, "said Umam.

Ganjar Pranowo, who is currently still active as Governor of Central Java, was officially announced as a presidential candidate from PDIP, Friday (21/4). PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri announced this directly at the 140th Party DPP Meeting Expanded by Tiga Pilar with an agenda for internal consolidation and Idul Fitri 1444 H gathering at Batu Tulis Palace, Bogor, West Java.

Registration for presidential and vice presidential candidates is scheduled to take place from 19 October 2023 to 25 November 2023.

Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections (UU Pemilu) regulates that pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties or coalitions of political parties participating in elections that meet the requirements for obtaining seats of at least 20 percent of the total seats in the DPR or obtaining 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the previous election for members of the DPR.

Currently, there are 575 seats in parliament so that pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election must have at least 115 seats in support from the Indonesian House of Representatives. Candidate pairs can also be promoted by political parties or a combination of political parties participating in the 2019 Election, with a total valid vote acquisition of at least 34,992,703 votes.