Tomorrow! BPS Releases Economic Growth, How Has It Trended So Far?

Illustration (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will soon announce the achievement of Indonesia's economic growth for the first quarter of 2023. This agenda is an official release of BPS every three months.

VOI noted that the trend of Indonesia's economic growth is in good progress. This is because Indonesia is able to reach more than 5 percent year on year (yoy) throughout 2022 amid strong global pressures, mainly due to inflation and the potential for stagflation in a number of countries.

In detail, the gross domestic product (GDP) rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 5.02 percent. Then, respectively, the second quarter of 2022 was 5.46 percent, the third quarter of 2022 was 5.73 percent, and the fourth quarter of 2022 it was 5.01 percent. As a result, the full year 2022 economic growth rate was at the level of 5.31 percent.

What About This Year?

The government through the Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani has set the growth rate for 2023 to be in the range of 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent.

On one occasion, the Minister of Finance revealed that the growth rate in the first three months of this year was still high.

"The government believes that in April it will be well maintained and contribute to the momentum of Indonesia's recovery and economic growth to remain high," he said while giving an explanation to the media crew in mid-April.

The tone of optimism refers to three things. First, relatively maintained inflation during Ramadan. Second, the trade balance surplus that continues until entering the 35th month in a row. And the last is the condition of the APBN which is still in surplus of Rp128.5 trillion in March 2023.

Separately, the Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo said that the important factor that supports economic growth is the strong demand side from within the country.

"Indonesia's economic growth remains strong, supported by increased domestic demand and positive export performance," he said.

The central bank also agrees with the growth target set by the government and believes that this level can be achieved this year.

"For these developments, economic growth in 2023 is estimated to be the upper bias in the projected range of 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent," said Perry.

Indonesian Anomaly: Global Slows Down, We Soar

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy will slow down from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023. This figure, called the IMF, will improve to a level of 3.0 percent by 2024.

Meanwhile, in the latest release of the International Monetary Fund, it revised upwards Indonesia's economic growth for 2023 from 4.8 percent to 5.0 percent. This positive signal continues with an estimated 5.1 percent for 2024.

"The increase in projected economic growth by the IMF shows that Indonesia is still one of the bright spots in the midst of a global situation full of uncertainty," said Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) of the Ministry of Finance Febrio Kacaribu some time ago.

According to Febrio, one of the most important roles is the Indonesian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is getting stronger in the expansion path. In the editorial notes, the Manufacturing PMI for the April 2023 period is at 52.7.

The score is better than March 2023 which amounted to 51.9. This achievement also extends the expansion record (more than level 50) for 20 consecutive months.

"With this optimism, the development of sustainable demand growth needs to be maintained to sustain economic growth and provide a strong cushion in the face of the risks of global economic turmoil," said Febrio.