JAKARTA - The world economy is predicted to be dark next year. This is triggered by high inflation, economic contraction towards recession to a geopolitical situation that is still uncertain.
Even so, the government is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 will grow positively.
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said the government remains optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth will be at the level of 5 percent.
Furthermore, Airlangga said, optimism also departs from predictions issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"Optimistics grew above 5 percent. The IMF also estimates above that," he told reporters when met at Gelora Bung Karno (GBK), Jakarta, Sunday, October 16.
For your information, the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) IMF report estimates the global economy will be in the range of 3.2 percent by 2022, and slow down to 2.7 percent in 2023, or a 0.2 percent decline compared to the outlook in July 2022.
Although the world economy is slowing down and is in danger of a recession, the IMF estimates that Indonesia can still grow in the range of five percent in 2023 or a slight decline from 5.3 percent in 2022.
This projection is also in line with the BI outlook which estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 will be targeted at 4.6-5.3 percent of Indonesia's economy can grow 5 percent until 2045
Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) Erick Thohir believes that Indonesia will not fall into a recession. Erick is confident that the Indonesian economy will grow at the 5 percent level.
Erick's statement follows the World Bank's forecast that there will be a global economic recession in 2023.
"We are not experiencing a recession. So if the ladies and gentlemen who are present today are sluggish, it means they are wrong to take a position because Indonesia is not in recession," he said at the Investor Daily Summit 2022 quoted Wednesday, October 12.
Erick also admitted that he was optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth would consistently grow at the level of 5 percent until 2045.
It is this estimated consistency of economic growth that brings Indonesia's opportunity to become the 4th largest economy in the world.
"We will continue to grow 5 percent until 2045, and will position us as the country with the largest economy in the world. If it is not ranked 5, it is ranked 4th," he said.
Previously, the Executive Director of the Segara Institute Piter A. Redjalam revealed that Indonesia's condition was still quite good and was believed to be able to survive the global recession.
The reason is, Indonesia is different from countries that rely too much on exports.
"The Indonesian economy relies more on domestic consumption which is expected to improve as the pandemic subsides. In addition, on the export side, commodity prices will still be helped," he said, Tuesday, October 11.
Even so, Piter acknowledged that the global recession would certainly hold back or even lower commodity prices.
However, he said, this did not make commodity prices fall.
commodity prices will remain quite high and benefit Indonesia, which relies on commodities.
With this condition, said Piter, even when affected by the global recession, Indonesia is estimated to be able to survive even though economic growth will slow down.
"Even if Indonesia is affected by the global recession, it is estimated that only makes our economic growth slow down, it cannot reach the target above 5 percent. That is a bad scenario. Our best scenario can still grow above 5 percent," he said.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
