Outlook 2023: Indonesia's Economy Memperlalukan Nampai Tak Sampai Resessi

Illustration (Photo: Doc. Ministry of Finance)

JAKARTA The global situation that has not yet recovered and has even experienced a weakening is suspected to be one of the dominant factors that will affect the Indonesian economy in the future. The analysis was conveyed by the Deputy Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Eko Listiyanto.

According to him, the actual economic challenges began to be felt several months ago, especially after the increase in fuel oil prices (BBM) and changes in the rupiah exchange rate.

"The economic outlook for 2023 in Indonesia only occurred a slowdown, not to the economic recession," he said in a written statement earlier this week.

Eko explained, Indonesia is one of the countries that will be strong in holding back economic turmoil in the future. He said, other countries may experience a recession, but in Indonesia, this will not happen because of the resilience and economic support from various aspects that have been and will be carried out.

My guess is that there won't be a recession next year, but there is indeed an economic downturn. The economy is still moving, but not like this year," he said.

To note, several important trading partners of the Republic of Indonesia, such as China, the United States, and European countries, are believed to experience a slowdown in growth in 2023. This of course affects Indonesia's exports which quite support the formation of gross domestic product (GDP).

This projection is reflected in the release of the world's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is experiencing weakening in line with the growing threat of the European energy crisis and the Fed's hawkish distance in response to inflation control.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's economic growth based on the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) report was 5.01 percent year on year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2022.

Meanwhile, for the second quarter of 2022, it is 5.44 percent. The government itself is optimistic that the growth level throughout this year can be above 5 percent, supported by domestic consumption factors.