JAKARTA - Mutual fund investors can start looking at the types of products that will benefit from the increase in commodity prices. This is because a number of global sentiments are still looming over the stock market until the middle of this year, causing the market to fluctuate.
"However, by continuing to adjust the risk profile of investors," said Bareksa Head of Investment Christian Halim in a statement, Wednesday, May 25.
Christian explained that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which still shows no signs of ending, means that energy commodity prices will remain at high levels, especially in the winter of this year. This will make it difficult for the European region if they fail to find sufficient energy sources from other countries to replace energy from Russia.
For Indonesia, the increase in energy commodity prices has a positive impact on the trade balance. Indonesia recorded a surplus of 7.56 billion US dollars in April 2022, which was driven by the trade balance of the non-oil and gas sector due to increased exports of coal, iron ore and steel.
"With reference coal prices remaining high, we see Indonesia will enjoy a surplus of around US$3–4 billion in May, and US$4–5 billion in June, after the government lifts the ban on palm oil exports," Christian explained.
Christian also believes that the strengthening of the trade balance surplus in April 2022 provided a cushion for bond yields and the rupiah exchange rate which has weakened over the past few weeks. With the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, bond yields are also expected to be able to stay at the level of 7.3–7.5 percent until the announcement of the US Central Bank's interest rate hike on 15 June.
However, global inflationary pressures and the increase in benchmark interest rates that occurred in the world still allowed the yield on government bonds to increase again to the level of 7.8–8.0 percent. While waiting for government bond yields to increase again, investors are advised to enter fixed income mutual funds based on corporate bonds.
"We advise customers to start paying in installments to purchase fixed income mutual funds based on government bonds when bond yields touch 7.8 percent. This recommendation is based on historical data that yields will rebound to the level of 7 percent, after yields touch 8 percent," said Christian.
Mutual fund accumulation Shares
Meanwhile, in the view of the Managing Partner of Bareksa Prioritas Citra Putri, now until the beginning of the next third quarter is the right time to accumulate stock mutual funds and stock index mutual funds, considering that the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) usually moves horizontally and there is potential for correction. until that time.
"We also suggest that investors can accumulate aggressively if the JCI is corrected to the level of 6,500–6,600 with the Priority Bareksa target for the JCI at the end of this year remaining at the level of 7,500–7,800," said Citra.
Bareksa Prioritas also suggested that investors who wish to purchase equity mutual funds at this time, can choose equity mutual funds that have share weights in sectors that benefit from the current increase in commodity prices, such as the energy, commodities, and property sectors.
In addition, investors can avoid mutual funds that have high tech stock weights, given the negative impact of the trend of rising interest rates on technology stocks, which is projected to continue.
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