Tiga Faktor Yang Membuat Value Subsidy BBM Mengtingkak, Sehingga Harga Harus Dinaikkan Pemerintah

The fuel subsidy will most likely be reduced so that the increase in fuel prices becomes a consequence. (Between/Reno Esnir)

JAKARTA - The issue of an increase in the price of fuel oil (BBM) types of diesel and pertalite is getting stronger. Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto has confirmed the plan to adjust fuel prices. He conveyed this when answering questions at the RSIS Distinguished Public Lecture: Indonesia, Singapore, ASEAN and the New Asian Landscape in Singapore, Monday (29/8). However, until now, the government has not decided when the increase will take effect.

As if he had no choice, increasing fuel prices was considered the best way to avoid another spike in subsidized budgets and compensation sourced from the state budget. Because previously to protect people's purchasing power and the national economy from being hit by a storm of global uncertainty, the amount of energy subsidies in the 2022 State Budget has been increased 3 times from Rp152.5 trillion to Rp502.4 trillion through Presidential Regulation 98/2022.

This step turned out to be able to keep Indonesia's inflation rate only around 4.94 percent as of July 2022. Meanwhile, developed countries, inflation rates soared. Look at the United States, which has inflation reaching 8.6 percent in May 2022. In fact, in nominal conditions it is only 1.5-2.5 percent. However, said President Jokowi, will the state budget be strong?

"Pertalite, Pertamax, diesel, LPG, electricity is not the actual price, not the economic price, it is the price subsidized by the government," said the President at the 2022 Inflation Control Coordination Meeting on August 18, 2022.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani detailed the value of gas, diesel, and pertalite subsidies:

If not adjusted, it is certain that there will be a surge in the subsidy budget and compensation for fuel of IDR 195.6 trillion or IDR 698 trillion by the end of 2022.

Moreover, said Sri Mulyani, there are 3 factors that make the 2022 energy subsidy and compensation higher than the allocation:

Based on Refinitiv data, the price of Brent type contract oil on August 26, 2022 jumped 4.41 percent point-to-point (ptp) compared to last week's closing position to 100.99 dollars per barrel. As for sweetlight contract oil or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) it shot up 2.52 percent to 93.06 US dollars per barrel last week.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif also admitted that if the government added a quota for subsidized fuel, the burden on the state budget for subsidies could increase.

"But if the government does not increase the subsidized fuel quota, then the scarcity will occur at various gas stations that have the potential to trigger social unrest," said Arifin as quoted by Antara.

Arifin juga belum bisa memastikan berapa persen kenaikan harga untuk solar dan pertalite, begitu juga jadwal pelaksanaannya.

The news circulating that the increase in diesel and pertalite prices will take effect on September 1, 2022. The price increase is no more than Rp. 10,000, right?

Public Policy Observer at Pasundan University, Dr. Deden Ramdan, M.Si assessed that the increase in subsidized fuel prices was inevitable. However, he suggested that the government continue to monitor the distribution and allocation of fuel, as well as evaluate the prices of community needs.

This is because the usual increase in fuel prices will also increase the prices of basic commodities.

"The price stability of the basic needs of the community must be maintained, lest the price of Pertalite increase by a few percent, but then the price of basic necessities increases repeatedly and unreasonablely," he said as quoted by Kompas.com, Saturday (27/8).

Currently, the government has prepared three social cushions as a form of transfer of fuel subsidies with a total of Rp24.17 trillion. It is intended for 20.65 million groups or beneficiary families. The form is in the form of:

The Minister of Social Affairs will pay it twice, namely the first Rp. 300,000 and the second Rp. 300,000. It will be paid through various post office channels throughout Indonesia for 20.65 million recipient families with a budget of Rp. 12.4 trillion," Finance Minister Sri Mulyani told reporters after attending a meeting with President Joko Widodo at the Presidential Office, Monday (29/8).

The Ministry of Finance will issue a Regulation of the Minister of Finance (PMK). Subsidized funds come from a 2 percent discount on the General Transfer Fund, namely the General Allocation Fund (DAU) and the Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH) of Rp2.17 trillion.

"This policy is expected to be able to maintain people's purchasing power due to the impact of global price spikes," added Sri Mulyani.

According to Deden, as long as the government can ensure that the distribution of aid is right on target, then the hope to maintain people's purchasing power can be fulfilled.

"The most important thing is that there is supervision and a sense of justice in distribution to affected communities," he said.