Ganjar And Prabowo Compete Strictly In The LSI Survey, Anies Is Stable In Third Position

President Joko Widodo Accompanied By Defense Minister Prabowo Subiyanto And Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo/ANTARA

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) released the results of a survey in August 2023 which found that in the simulation of the three names of candidates for president (candidates), Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto competed closely with a difference of only 1.7 percent. "“Ganjar won at 37 percent in August 2023, but Prabowo was at 35.3 percent. So, the difference is only 1.7 percent,” said LSI Executive Director Djayadi Hanan in a survey release monitored online from Jakarta, Antara, Wednesday, August 30. Anies Baswedan is in third position in the simulation of three names, with 22.2 percent. This figure, said Djayadi, decreased significantly compared to Anies' electability in August 2022 which at that time reached 28.2 percent. “Anies at 22.2 percent, decreased quite significantly compared to August or a year ago, ” said Djayadi. Meanwhile, the electability of Ganjar and Prabowo has increased compared to the simulation of three presidential candidates by LSI in August 2022. At that time, Ganjar led with 31.7 percent and Prabowo 30.1 percent. Then, in the simulation of 35 names in the latest LSI survey, the presidential candidates who occupy the top position are still the same, namely Ganjar 31.5 percent, Prabowo 31.2 percent, and Anies Baswedan 19.7 percent. “ Closed simulation of 10 names, still tends to be equally strong statistically: 34.4 percent is Ganjar; 32 percent Prabowo; only 19.7 percent, ” continued Djayadi. Furthermore, Djayadi said the competition between the three names of the presidential candidates was still dynamic. This is because there are still around 36 percent of voters who do not have the possibility to change their choice or have not even made a choice for their presidential candidate. "So, if you look at this number, the competition between three names may still be dynamic," he said. The LSI survey was conducted on August 3– August 9, 2023 with 1,220 respondents selected in multistage random sampling. The margin of error of 1,220 respondents was around 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level (assuming simple random sampling). The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained. Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by supervisors, by returning to the selected respondents (spot check); no significant error was found from the quality control. Based on the schedule set by the General Election Commission (KPU) of the Republic of Indonesia, the registration of prospective presidential and vice presidential candidates is scheduled to start from October 19 to November 25, 2023.

As regulated in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections (UU Pemilu), pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties or coalitions of political parties participating in the election who meet the requirements for obtaining seats of at least 20 percent of the total number of seats in the DPR or obtaining 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the previous election for members of the DPR. Currently, there are 575 seats in parliament so that the pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election must have at least 115 seats in the DPR RI. It could also be that the candidate pairs are promoted by political parties or a combination of political parties participating in the 2019 Election with a total valid vote acquisition of at least 34,992,703 votes.