Putin And Wagner Mercenaries

Russian President Vladimir Putin/PHOTO via Instagram @rusemb_indonesia

JAKARTA - The rain of artillery fire was so heavy that the United States soldiers and the Kurdi-Arab coalition were forced to take cover in the holes of protection.

At that time, Wednesday, February 7, 2018, the clock was already at 20.00. It was late at night, but the flash of light from the bullets milling over Kasham City, Dier ez-Zor Province, Syria, made the night atmosphere not as dark as usual.

A while later, the T-72 combat tanks burst, while vomiting 125 mm caliber bullets from the main cannons.

Serdadu-sedu AS dan Kurdi-Arab itu membalas, tapi mana mungkin kambak biasa dapat menghentikan gerak majutan tank.

They were attacked by about 500 soldiers from Syrian government forces, Shia militias, and Wagner Group mercenaries from Russia. Wagner is at the heart of the attacking force.

Those who were attacked were cornered. They were overwhelmed, then asked for reinforcements.

Reported by ANTARA, Friday, June 30, about 20 miles from the battleground in the Conoco oil field, 30 soldiers of the green beret and marine special forces, staring closely at the computer screen in front of them, watched live footage of the fierce fighting from videos immortalized from the air by the drone.

Together with the combating army, the 30 American command soldiers have the duty to defend the Conoco oil field.

Finally, American troops managed to push back the enemy without losing a single life. On the other hand, the death toll on the enemy reached hundreds of people.

It took four hours and state-of-the-art war engines such as crewless Aircraftmen, F-22 stealth fighter jets, F-15 Eagles, B-52 bombers, and Apache AH-64 attack helicopters, to be able to get rid of Wagner Group's adventures.

Imagine, if at that time the attacker had the strength of more than 500 soldiers. Also imagine if those who faced them were ordinary soldiers, not the Green Beret and US Marines whose reputation was already worldwide.

Kasham's fighting is remembered as the first direct contact of Wagner mercenaries with US soldiers.

Despite losing, Yevgeny Prigozhin's reputation for the mercenaries actually soared.

Their reputation is getting higher during the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has entered its second year. Many Russians praised the Wagner Group laskar as heroes of the nation.

They are indeed the most effective Russian combat units in Ukraine. In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged it.

Big assets

Perhaps because of that, Putin was not disturbed by Prighozin's repeated criticism of Russian military officials, particularly Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Armed Forces Commander General Valery Gerasimov, both of whom were at the center of Putin's innermost circle of power.

From day to day Prighozin was increasingly criticizing, until then on June 23, 2023 he led Wagner Group out of Ukraine to enter Russia to "dict" Shoigu and Gerasimov, mainly due to Wagner's discourse on integration into the Russian armed forces.

Putin's confidant turned against him. Putin was angry, then thought Prigozhin had betrayed him, like he had betrayed Julius Caesar in the ancient Roman era.

"This is a stab from behind for everyone in Russia," Putin said, as soon as Prigozhin led his mercenaries to Moscow in a maneuver he called "The Justice Parade".

Manuver, who was originally smooth and only 200 km left to reach Moscow, reached anticlimactics, died before developing, after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened and ended the drama.

Prigozhin then became a prisoner, and was no longer comfortable on Russian soil.

Given that he is part of a Russian citizen who is on the Western sanctions list, Prigozhin cannot run anywhere other than Belarus, which together with Russia were subject to Western sanctions for making his territory the basis for attacking Ukraine.

Now, because Prigozhin does not want to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, Wagner Group may no longer be on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Then, what about the fate of the Wagner Group?

Putin was furious at Prigozhin, but he did not punish him, at least so far.

On the other hand, professional soldiers, such as General Sergey Surovikin who was nicknamed "General Armageddon" were reportedly punished for being considered to know the Prigozhin movement.

Meanwhile, to the tens of thousands of Prighozin's men, Putin still gave three choices; joined the Russian armed forces, returned to his respective homes, or followed Prigozhin to Belarus.

In fact, in the past, Putin did not hesitate to punish anyone who dared to fight him.

Three decades ago, he suppressed the Chechen separation movement from the Russian Federation that sparked two major wars that took place in 1994-1996 and 1999-2000.

This Chechen war was so devastating that Grozny, who became the capital city of one of the republics of the Russian Federation, was destroyed by Russia, while the fate of his figures, Dzhokar Dudayev and totaling Maskhadov, ended in tragedy.

Putin did not treat Prigozhin as passionately as against Dudayev and Maskhadov, as Putin may see Wagner Group as a "big asset" for Russia.

instrumental parts

In fact, Wagner has become instrumental for Putin's global project which makes Russia appear present in all mandala of world conflict.

Wagner is actively operating in around 30 African countries, the Middle East, and Latin America.

They are very influential in various African conflicts, including Mali, the Central African Republic, and Libya, even in Sudan, which is currently being plagued by a feud between the RSF militia and its official armed forces.

Wagner was also part of the core of Crimea's successful annexation in 2014.

Even in the Ukraine war. Together with the Chechen militia led by Ramzan Kadyrov, Wagner is Russia's most effective armed unit.

Wagner is indeed only one of a number of Russian private military companies operating abroad. However, this particle army organization is unique when viewed from its scope and scale.

They were able to deploy 5,000 soldiers at the height of the civil war in Syria in 2017, and 50,000 combat personnel in Ukraine until early 2023.

They are also a source of great revenue for the Kremlin that allows the Russian government to take over mining businesses and strategic sectors abroad, including gold mines, which provide maximum profits for Russia.

Wagner himself was present because of market demands by the presence of private corporations that emerged at the beginning of the post-Cold War era, such as Gazprom, Tatneft, Stroytransgaz, Zarubezhneft, Rosneft, and Surgutneftgaz.

Those companies need efficient but effective security protection, especially as their business operations reach conflict areas around the world.

Such protection can be offered more by particle army organizations such as Wagner Group, than soldiers or official security forces who are often unreliable because they are hit by regulations and bureaucracy, in addition to being corrupt.

The safety of the oligarchs itself is an inseparable part of the security and resilience of the regime, because without oligarchy it is impossible for the regime to survive, even though the regime has luxury in controlling security and intelligence apparatus.

Therefore, borrowing the analysis of political expert Molly Dunigan from Carnegie Mellon University in USA Today, it is almost impossible for Putin to dissolve Wagner Group or strip all of its personnel, as they are too important for Russia's geostrategic and economic security purposes.

Putin may have done something about changing the face of the Wagner Group and ensuring that it is led by people with better quality than Prighozin, who is said to have not been liked by most of Russia's professional military because they are furious like bandits.

Then, if it is true that the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Wagner's private soldiers should no longer be on the Ukrainian field because Prigozhin refuses a contract with the defense ministry, can Putin win the war in Ukraine without his most effective combat unit?

It could be that the absence of Wagner in Ukraine is a great opportunity for the Russian military to turn the war pendulum into more favorable for them. But it could also be the opening chapter for the end of the adventure in Ukraine.