JAKARTA - Executive Director of Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), Igor Dirgantara, conveyed the findings of survey data conducted for the period December 2022.
Ternyata, nama Prabowo Subianto masih berada di posisi puncak dalam barometer elektabilitas tokoh nasional untuk Pemilu 2024 disusul Ganjar Pranowo dan Anies Baswedan.
The electability trend of the General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party DPP tends to strengthen compared to the previous period.
"As of the survey for the period December 2022, Prabowo's electability achievement is still stable at 31.8 percent and even tends to strengthen," said Igor in a survey release received in Jakarta, Thursday, December 29.
There are several perspectives why Prabowo Subianto's name is still strengthening for his electability barometers. One of them is related to his actions in helping President Joko Widodo's government as Minister of Defense.
"It is suspected that the results of his work as Minister of Defense and endorsement were carried out by Jokowi against him," said Igor.
In addition, said Igor, the next factor is Prabowo Subianto's statement which has declared himself ready to fight again in the 2024 presidential election.
"The focus is to carry out the mandate of the president in the defense, it should be appreciated considering that Prabowo has declared who he will return to fight in the presidential election competition," he said.
In addition, another factor why Prabowo is still superior according to Igor is because the figure of the Minister of Defense is considered positive by the Indonesian people.
"His patriotic, statesman and big-hearted attitude in several national and international moments covered by the media or new media also did not escape the attention and appreciation of the public," he added.
Meanwhile, in the next order, there is the name Ganjar Pranowo who gets 20.1 percent. Then Anies Baswedan gets 19.7 percent. The electability rate of the three big figures still dominates each other.
In the SPN survey too, Igor made 4 simulations for only 2 pairs of candidates in the 2024 General Election. One of them is by measuring how strong Prabowo Subianto is when paired with 4 names, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Erick Thohir, Muhaimin Iskandar alias Cak Imin and Ridwan Kamil alias Kang Emil. As a result, Prabowo will be dominant when paired with Ganjar Pranowo.
For the first simulation, namely Prabowo-Ganjar (63.3 percent) against Anies-AHY (29.1 percent) and swing votes (7.6 percent). Then the second simulation of Prabowo-Erick got 60.9 percent against Ganjar-Airlangga who got 33.4 percent and swing voters 5.7 percent.
Then for the Prabowo-Muhaimin (40.1 percent) pair against Ganjar-Erick (55.8 percent) with a swing voter of 4.1 percent.
Finally, in the fourth simulation, if Prabowo is paired with Ridwan Kamil, he will get 42.7 percent and his opponent Ganjar-Erick will get 41.5 percent with a swing voter of 15.8 percent.
"The survey also found that the strongest pair when it happened there were only 2 pairs of candidates competing occupied by Prabowo-Ganjar and Prabowo-Erick," he explained.
The SPIN survey was conducted between 1-10 December 2022 and involved 1,230 respondents in 34 provinces throughout Indonesia. The sample collection technique used is multistage random sampling with a margin of error - / + 2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
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