JAKARTA - Executive Director of Voxpol Center Research and Consulting Pangi Syarwi Chaniago said that Prabowo Subianto's advancement as a presidential candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election could hinder Anies Baswedan's victory as well as smoothen Ganjar Pranowo's victory if he nominates as a presidential candidate.
"The advancement of Prabowo as a presidential candidate has indirectly benefited Ganjar Panowo, at the same time it shows that Anies Baswedan may be hampered as a presidential-vice presidential candidate," Pangi said in a written statement quoted by ANTARA, Thursday, August 24.
He said Prabowo's advance could hamper Anies Baswedan's space for movement.
According to him, even though Anies has high electability, it does not necessarily make him a candidate for president because of the veto players in Indonesian party politics.
"For example, Anies is always in the top three, the electability cluster is 'top-level', it doesn't necessarily run smoothly as a presidential candidate, but it is the political parties that have 'veto players' whichever presidential and vice-presidential candidate they will carry in the future," he said.
"Prabowo is running as a presidential candidate, it means that Anies Baswedan's DNA chance of victory is disrupted," he said.
This, said Pangi, was due to the same niche base of voters between Anies and Prabowo.
Meanwhile, the niche base of Ganjar's voter segment remains undivided (straight-ticket voting), even more, solid and unanimous.
"Meanwhile, Anies and Prabowo's vote base is split (split ticket voting)," he said.
Pangi cited cross-tabulation data for the Voxpol Center Research and Consulting column in March 2022 which showed that Gerindra Party voters chose Prabowo at 55.9 percent, while Gerindra Party voters chose Anies Baswedan at 44.7 percent.
"This data shows that Gerindra Party voters split the voting ticket into presidential candidate Anies and presidential candidate Prabowo significantly," Pangi said.
Prabowo's advancement, continued Pangi, has also further limited Anies' chance to be promoted by political parties as presidential candidates, because the 20 percent quota for coalition political parties is a prerequisite for the presidential nomination threshold (presidential threshold).
"Of course, this makes it difficult in political mathematics, it is not easy for Anies who is not a political party cadre and does not have a party. Thus, Prabowo's advancement as a presidential candidate has certainly closed Anies' space to get a 'boarding pass' from a political party," he said.
Therefore, Pangi views that Prabowo's running as a presidential candidate in 2024 as the same as giving Ganjar a way or a red carpet, so he can win smoothly in the 2024 presidential election.
"How to block Anies' victory and how to pave the way for Ganjar to become president, 'causality' is the key determinant regarding whether or not Prabowo will become a presidential candidate," he said.
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