CSIS: 2024 Election Will Be More Tight And Competitive

ILLUSTRA TION BY VOI

JAKARTA - The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) predicts that the presidential election (Pilpres) on February 14, 2024 will be tight and competitive. The 2024 presidential election is also predicted to take place in two rounds.

Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at CSIS, Arya Fernandes, said that the competition in the presidential election was tight because the electability of candidates who appeared in the top three positions in the national survey was only slightly different. Moreover, the 2024 presidential election will actually be followed by Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

"First, I see the distance between electability or vote acquisition, especially between the three popular candidates who get the highest electability based on the survey results, is relatively tight, so with such a tight composition the presidential election has the potential to take place in two rounds," said Arya in an online discussion, Wednesday, 8 June.

In addition, according to Arya, the coalition of political parties so far is still very fluid. This is because the parties are still open to meeting to explore coalitions, both parties with the same platform or cross-platform parties.

"So a liquid coalition will affect the level of competition in the upcoming presidential election," he said.

Third, there is no incumbent. Because based on the constitution the term of office of the president is limited to 10 years or two terms, so that the incumbent can certainly not run again as president if there is no change to the constitution.

"So the absence of an incumbent makes the 2024 presidential election difficult," said Arya.