Observers Remind Indonesia to Remain Alert Despite a Surplus Trade Balance

JAKARTA - Economist from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Dzulfian Syafrian said that Indonesia must remain vigilant even though the trade balance report recorded a surplus in December 2022.

"In trade we have to be vigilant. It doesn't mean that it (the trade balance) will come out in January 2023, it means that in 2023 global trade will be fine, because there will be a break. That's the year-end data," Dzulfian said, quoted from Antara, Tuesday, January 17.

Dzulfian said the weakening global economic conditions had affected Indonesia's trade balance report at the end of 2022. However, this could be different when entering 2023.

Therefore, Dzulfian is of the opinion that Indonesia must continue to anticipate so that it does not fall into a tailspin.

"This is year-end data, but we have to anticipate not being complacent. Meanwhile, the global downturn will occur in 2023," he said.

Dzulfian said the data submitted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) was not real time data so that it could not be used as a benchmark for economic success in 2023.

However, a surplus value of USD 3.89 billion with exports of USD 23.83 billion and imports of USD 19.94 billion in Indonesia's trade balance in December 2022 is positive.

This means that fears of a weakening global economy have not yet been seen in Indonesia so that Indonesia can still export abroad.

Dzulfian believes that behind these blessings, Indonesia must always be vigilant, especially if the global economy recovers and moves quickly.

"In the economic context, when global conditions decline, the impact on us is not too severe. So from that point of view, it is good news, but the bad news is that when the global economy recovers, improves or even moves fast, we will not be able to keep up. We will not be able to get the blessing of benefits like other countries whose economies are more integrated with the global economy," he continued.