American Sayonara, Chinese Awakening Dongkrak Ekonomi RI

JAKARTA The financial expert from Ajaib Sekuritas Chisty Maryani said that the reopening of China's economic activity could be a driving force for the Indonesian economy from an external perspective.

According to him, China is one of the important trading partners in the Asia Pacific region. In fact, the country will become Indonesia's largest export destination in 2021 with a value of 53.7 million US dollars.

China has the opportunity to become a booster for Indonesia's economic improvement. We can bring export performance more resilient, so that the trade balance surplus and transaction surplus can continue," he said in a written statement on Thursday, January 12.

Chisty explained that although the positive side can be achieved, the potential for pressure still lurks from China's economic revival after the lockdown some time ago.

It should be noted that this could be a double-edged knife for Indonesia because it triggered capital outflows in the financial market, considering that China's economy is gradually recovering to become an attraction for foreign investors. In the end, Indonesia has the potential to experience a capital transaction deficit like in the third quarter of 2022," he said.

Although there are opportunities and challenges originating from China, he continued, at least this is still better than that offered by developed countries in particular, the United States. The reason is, he is worried about the potential for a recession that is getting closer despite the reduction in interest rates in December 2022.

"The Fed is projected to continue to raise interest rates until the first half of 2023 due to inflation which is still far from the target of 2 percent," he said.

Chisty said the policy was a challenge because it triggered capital outflows for the equity market in Indonesia.

"Amid the issue of weakening the developed economy which is projected to peak in the first half of 2023, market participants have switched to bonds that have a lower risk than stocks," he concluded.