If Anies-AHY, Ganjar-Airlangga, Prabowo-Puan Run For The 2024 Presidential Election, Who Will Win?

JAKARTA - The SMRC Survey Institute released a poll regarding the simulation of the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs in the 2024 General Election.

In their formulation, there are three pairs that have the potential to run in the 2024 presidential election. The pairs are Anies Baswedan with Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Ganjar Pranowo with Airangga Hartarto, and Prabowo Subianto with Puan Maharani as presidential and vice presidential candidates, respectively.

When respondents were asked which pair of presidential and vice presidential candidates they chose, the result was that Anies-AHY got the most votes with 29.8 percent, followed by Ganjar-Airlangga 28.5 percent, and Prabowo-Puan 27.5 percent. Meanwhile, 14.3 percent said they did not know and did not answer.

"If the presidential-vice presidential election is held now and is followed by 3 pairs, Anies-AHY vs Ganjar-Airlangga vs Prabowo-Puan, the three pairs will receive more or less equal support," said SMRC Executive Director Sirojudin Abbas in a virtual survey presentation, Thursday. , April 7th.

Abbas then explained how to determine the installation of names in this simulation. First, he said, the formation of the presidential-vice presidential candidate pair could be determined by the pattern of relations between parties to form a coalition. He took the example of PDIP and PKS which are very difficult to form a coalition.

The second factor, continued Abbas, is communication between party elites. According to him, there are parties that do not easily communicate, not because of ideology, but rather because of the spiritual atmosphere among party leaders.

For example, PDIP vs Democrats and vs NasDem. Also NasDem vs Gerindra. "It is possible that the PDIP is not in a coalition with the Democrats or NasDem. Meanwhile, NasDem may not be able to form a coalition with Gerindra," said Abbas.

The third factor is the existence of three major parties, namely PDIP, Golkar, and Gerindra. Abbas estimates the possibility of each of these parties demanding that their cadres be number 1 or at least number 2. So Prabowo, Puan, and Airlangga might run for number 1 or number 2.

The fourth factor is the intensity to be the number one candidate. This is found in the figure of Prabowo who was intensely pushed by his party, Gerindra, to become a presidential candidate.

The fifth factor is the consideration of the electability of the candidate. The three names with the top electability are Prabowo, Ganjar, and Anies. Thus, the combination of the five factors might give birth to 3 candidate axes.

"One possibility is the Gerindra-PDIP axis, Golkar, and Nasdem-Democratic. PAN and PPP can fulfill Golkar. PKS has the opportunity to fulfill Nasdem-Democrats. On the Gerindra-PDIP axis, because Prabowo must be number 1, and Puan Maharani has too much electability. below, then Puan might accept being number 2," he explained.

Meanwhile, because Airlangga's electability is too weak, it is likely that he will look for the most competitive candidate. According to Abbas, Ganjar Pranowo is the alternative. It is also open to the possibility that Airlangga will be number 1 and Ganjar number 2.

Then, the Nasdem-Democratic-PKS Axis was able to nominate Anies Baswedan because his electability was quite good, while Nasdem and PKS did not have competitive cadres. Abbas predicts that AHY can be accepted as Anies' companion because he is quite competitive compared to the names of other party figures.