Testing the Facts Behind the President's Speech

Photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA - A speech without text always has its appeal. It sounds spontaneous, feels honest, and often gives the impression that a leader is talking about what it is. However, when what is delivered is economic figures, spontaneity can turn into a national debate.

The reason is that a digit that misses a head of state is not just a rhetorical error, but can affect public perception, business actors, and the direction of policy discussions. This is what happened when President Prabowo Subianto said that he received a report on a rice mill that was able to make a profit of up to Rp2 trillion per month.

The statement immediately became a public spotlight. Some consider it as a picture of an unnatural business practice, while others question whether the figure is economically reasonable. The debate is not merely about right or wrong. Simply put, how does the public test every claim that comes out of a president's mouth with data, methodology, and economic logic.

Political communication expert Murray Edelman in his book Constructing the Political Spectacle (1988) mentions that every statement of a state leader has a symbolic dimension.

"Numbers, metaphors, and expressions that come out of a president are often understood as a representation of the state of the country, so they have a much greater political impact than the statements of ordinary officials," the book said, quoted by VOI, Sunday, August 2.

The importance of data accuracy The data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Ministry of Agriculture so far shows that most of the mills are small and medium-sized enterprises, while only a small part operates on an industrial scale.

Even large companies work with a relatively thin margin because the price of rice, drying costs, storage, distribution, and fluctuations in rice prices continue to change according to the season and government policies.

The Ministry of Agriculture also estimates that the potential loss to society reaches Rp98 trillion to Rp100 trillion per year due to rice trading practices that do not meet quality standards. From the total losses, the government suspects that there are business groups that enjoy very large profits that led to the figure of Rp2 trillion that was conveyed by the President.

Data and Quality of Public Policy On the other hand, data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that national rice production is in the range of more than 53 million tons of milled dry rice (GKG) per year in recent years. Most of the harvest is processed by tens of thousands of milling units with different business characteristics, so that the profit of each company depends heavily on production capacity, efficiency, operational costs, and rice prices. Therefore, claims regarding profits of up to Rp2 trillion on one business entity can only be proven through financial audits, trading volume, and transparent tracing of the distribution chain.

Even so, the clarification actually shows the importance of public communication accuracy. In the agenda setting theory proposed by Maxwell McCombs and Donald Shaw, issues conveyed by the most influential figures will immediately become the agenda of public discussion. Not because the public automatically believes it, but because the public considers the issue important to be noticed.