Reading Political Constellations Before the Inauguration

Photo Illustration by Andry Winarko (VOI)

JAKARTA - The revision of Law 19 of 2006 concerning the Presidential Advisory Council, which was carried out towards the end of the DPR's term of office, surprised many parties. This plan was previously not included in the priorities of the National Legislation Program (Prolegnas). The DPR and the President can indeed propose bills outside the Prolegnas list, but with certain criteria and circumstances, namely extraordinary circumstances and national urgency.

Article 111 paragraph (3) DPR Regulation 1/2014 states that a bill can be submitted outside the National Legislation Program including the interests of ratifying international conventions or agreements; fill the legal vacuum resulting from the Constitutional Court decision; overcome extraordinary circumstances, conflict situations, or natural disasters; or address specific circumstances, ensuring national urgency. However, in the current situation there is no such urgency.

The revision was reportedly due to the less than optimal role of Wantimpres in providing input and advice to the president. In fact, this seems to be contrary to the concept that we adhere to as a presidential government which strengthens the president's position by giving the president the freedom to make decisions without the influence of other parties. So the role of Wantimpres as advisor to the president cannot be fully relied upon. Only if the president really needs it will the president ask Wantimpres for advice.

However, through the revision of Law 19 of 2006, the DPR intends to strengthen Wantimpres. The revision even changed what was originally a government institution in the executive branch. Its position will be changed to a state institution with the name of the Supreme Advisory Council. A much flashier name than the previous Wantimpres. Indeed, this position is reportedly prepared for previous former presidents, especially President Jokowi when he is no longer in office.

Constitutional Law Observer Feri Amsari questioned the use of the same name as the Supreme Advisory Council before reform, because according to the Amendment to UUD 45 its existence had been abolished on July 31 2003. He also questioned the relevance of bringing back the name DPA. Even though the name was meant to be a different name from the previous DPA. According to him, Wantimpres is positioned as a wing institution of the president. If it was formed as a separate institution apart from the presidency, according to him it would be inappropriate. He suspected that this had political interests. "This is just a matter of final political negotiations," said Feri during a dialogue with Baleg member Herman Khaeron on television.

So the public question is what the real purpose of the revision of Law 19 of 2006 is, which feels sudden and as if forced, and where the revision is headed. The public is speculating about the idea put forward by politician Gerindra, to form a "Presidential Club". Although Prabowo had denied that name. However, according to Prabowo Subianto's spokesperson, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, Prabowo wants the former presidents to continue to meet regularly and discuss strategic national issues. Dahnil called the association a presidential club.

Jokowi and Prabowo (Photo: Antara)

Gathering between Former Presidents

The formation of the DPA is perhaps the platform intended by Prabowo's hopes of placing people like Jokowi and other figures. This is also the direction of the revision of the Wantimpres. That's why the DPR needs to strengthen the new Wantimpres. So it can be used to reach out to former president and vice president level figures such as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Tri Sutrisna, Jusuf Kalla and Jokowi. It is hoped for being able to include Megawati as well, that is indeed an important target for Prabowo.

Previously, political observer and Executive Director of Indo Barometer, M Qodari, said that the formation of an institution would be like a "Presidential Club". This will provide two benefits for Prabowo. The formation of a friendship club for presidents and former presidents will have a positive impact on national unity, so it is worth supporting and implementing.

Second, Prabowo will receive input and support for the future development of the Indonesian nation. This forum can help Prabowo map various national problems and get input and solutions from former presidents. Both unemployment, investment, health, education and infrastructure issues. Another advantage of the forum. Apart from that, it will also provide additional political support from parliament and the public.

Other accommodative politics can also be seen in the preparation of the Prabowo-Gibran cabinet ministers that are being drafted. It is true that there is no clarity regarding the size of the Prabowo-Gibran Cabinet. However, it is estimated that there will be more than the number in Jokowi's current cabinet. During Jokowi's time there were 34 ministers with 4 coordinating ministers and 11 ministerial level officials. Prabowo-Gibran's cabinet will be more than that.

Deputy Deputy Gerindra Habiburokhman said that until now there had been no ministerial discussions between his party and the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM). According to the posters and lists circulating, they are just funny, because they were made by a certain party, not their party. "There has been no discussion about ministers, either at Gerindra or at the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM)," he said, denying the list of names of ministers circulating.

Responding to the fat cabinet number, Former Presidential Candidate Candidate Number 3 Ganjar Pranowo, Law Number 39 of 2008 concerning State Ministries noted that there are restrictions on the formation of the number of Ministers. However, as Ganjar had escaped from observation a few days ago, Gerindra, through the people at Baleg, had deftly anticipated this obstacle. Suddenly, the DPR Baleg announced that it had revised the regulations.

Chairman of the DPR RI Legislative Body (Baleg) Supratman Andi Agtas, who is also from the Gerindra Party, said that nine factions in the DPR Baleg approved the draft revision of the Ministry Law. Where one of the articles related to limiting the number of ministries to 34 was removed. According to him, the DPR has agreed to remove restrictions on the number of ministers.

Under the pretext of strengthening the presidential system and to give the elected president freedom to determine the number of his ministers. "That whoever is the president should not be locked in terms of numbers regarding the number of ministries or the nomenclature of the ministries" said Supratman, to journalists, 16 May.

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Is the Political Key in PDIP?

Another accommodative policy launched by Prabowo is the discourse on forming a large coalition supporting the Prabowo-Gibran pair. This coalition continues to be strengthened by embracing parties that were originally at odds with Candidate Pair No. 2. Such as the PPP party, which was originally in the camp of candidate pair No. 3, has reportedly already made an approach.

Also the Nasdem party and finally the PKB with its Muhaimin. Previously, Cak Imin (Muhaimin) and his party had been with them, but before the presidential election due to a problem they changed sides and partnered with Anies Baswedan. Apparently Prabowo wants to honeymoon with his former rival to strengthen and enlarge his coalition.

So now practically all that remains is PKS which has not yet decided on a position. Meanwhile, PDIP has said that it will be outside the government. However, Gerindra continues to approach PKS, to explore a coalition with the right party. Neither Prabowo nor Gerindra have significant problems that could hinder the formation of a coalition. PKS also supported Prabowo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections. Secretary General of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) Aboe Bakar Al-Habsyi stated that his party was currently arranging a schedule for his party's visit with the elected president Prabowo Subianto.

Even though Prabowo has brought together many parties and coalitions, according to Political Observer Director of the Indonesian Civil Circle (LIMA), Ray Rangkuti, until now Prabowo does not feel comfortable with the existence of PDIP outside the government. Currently, Prabowo is still trying to find a way to communicate with Megawati as the General Chair of the PDIP. According to Ray, Prabowo reached a level of frustration trying to achieve this approach. According to him, Prabowo is aware that this problem will continue to occur as long as his party is still attached to Jokowi. Because Megawati will not want to consider Prabowo's offer as long as Jokowi is there.

One way to facilitate this approach is to strengthen the existence of Wantimpres as a state institution. Among other things, according to Ray, the purpose of this goal is to be thankful that he was able to attract Megawati to join him there.

Rangkuti said that having PDIP outside Prabowo's coalition felt uncomfortable. This is because the current coalition with many parties is only based on pragmatic interests. They may one day leave Gerindra so that until now the party whose symbol is the Garuda bird does not feel safe if PDIP has not joined the coalition.

However, on the other hand, Gerindra continues to encourage parties to enter the government coalition. "The term for many coalitions is to surround PDIP" Ray said to VOI when contacted last week.

Ray's reading is that as long as there is no inauguration, Indonesia's political constellation will be like this. Prabowo also has not dared to determine the number of members of his cabinet, so the composition will still change. One of them is to prepare quotas for PDIP if they are willing to join.

"And my reading is that before Prabowo is inaugurated as president, there will be no change in the constellation. After Prabowo's inauguration as the eighth President, maybe there will be changes, for example Prabowo takes extreme steps to break away from Jokowi in order to attract Megawati," he said.