Atletico Madrid Vs. Real Madrid Prediction: El Derby Madrileno In Metropolitano For Big 8 Tickets

Real Madrid's first leg duel ahead of Atletico Madrid (photo: x @realmadrid)

JAKARTA - Atletico Madrid will host Real Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League last 16 at the Metropolitan Stadium on Wednesday night March 12 or Thursday morning WIB. This duel will be a life and death battle for both teams, especially for Atletico who trailed by aggregate 1-2 after their first meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu last week.

Brahim Diaz's goal at the end of the match ensured Los Blancos' narrow advantage in the first leg, after previously Rodrygo and Julian Alvarez scored spectacular goals for each team. Now, Diego Simeone's men must perform perfectly in front of their own supporters if they want to turn things around and advance to the quarter-finals.

Real Madrid had a better history in their Champions League meeting against Atletico. They have beaten city rivals in the 2014 and 2016 finals, as well as in the 2017 semifinals. However, Atletico had an impressive home record against Real Madrid in the domestic cup, where they were unbeaten in the last five meetings, with four of them ending in wins.

Los Colchoneros had experience in turning things around after losing in the first leg. From the previous six chances in the Champions League, they managed to qualify in three of them, with all these revivals taking place at home. This gives Simeone's squad great hope that they still have a chance to get rid of Real Madrid.

Another fact that supports Atletico is their unbeaten record in the knockout stages of the Champions League in 18 home games since March 1997, when they last lost to Ajax at Vicente Calderon. The rumbling atmosphere of Metropolitano will be a big factor that can help them create miracles.

Ahead of this match, Atletico did not have good capital after suffering a surprising defeat at LaLiga last weekend. They had to give up 2-3 from Getafe even though they had taken the lead until the 88th minute.

This defeat not only shook the mentality of the players, but also made them drop to third in LaLiga's standings, one point behind Barcelona who still have one game less.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid also had difficulties in their last match despite winning 2-1 over Rayo Vallecano. In that match, Los Blancos were pressured more by the opposing team and even lost the number of shots (10 compared to 20). This shows that Carlo Ancelotti's squad is not in their best form ahead of the important match at Metropolitano.

However, history notes that Real Madrid rarely failed to complete their task in the knockout stages of the Champions League when they won the first leg. Of the previous 22 occasions, they only failed to advance to the next round after winning in the first leg, namely against Ajax in 2019.

In this match, Atletico Madrid only lost their captain, Koke, who is still injured. The good news for Simeone is the return of Cesar Azpilicueta who was already in the squad against Getafe. With almost all key players available, Atletico can lower their full strength to face city rivals.

Nahuel Molina and Robin Le Normand, who appeared from the start in the first match, will most likely remain trusted by Simeone to guard the defense. Meanwhile, Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann will be the mainstays in attack to bang on the Real Madrid defense.

In the Real Madrid camp, Dani Ceballos, Dani Carvajal, and Eder Militao are still sidelined due to injury. However, they got additional power with the return of Antonio Rudiger and Thibaut Courtois who are likely to fall from the start. Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, and Ferland Mendy who were rested against Rayo Vallecano are predicted to return to the starting XI.

Jude Bellingham, who is absent due to suspension in domestic matches, is also ready to appear again and will become the motor of the Los Blancos attack with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior.

This match is predicted to go very tight and hot given the rivalry between the two teams. Atletico Madrid will appear more aggressive from the start to find a quick goal to equalize the aggregate. High pressure from the midfield commanded by Marcos Llorente and Rodrigo De Paul will be key to suppressing possession of Real Madrid.

On the other hand, Real Madrid will certainly play more calmly and rely on a quick counter-attack through the trio of their front lines inhabited by Mbappe, Vinicius, and Rodrygo. Jude Bellingham will also be a big threat with his movement from the second line.

Atletico will try to take advantage of their lead in set pieces, while Real Madrid will hope their individual qualities can be different in this match. If Atletico manages to score first, the game can be tenser, but if Real Madrid can withstand the hosts' onslaught, they will be in a more comfortable position.

Based on the latest performance and record meetings between the two teams, this match is predicted to end in a 2-2 draw. This result is enough for Real Madrid to advance to the quarter-finals with a 4-3 aggregate.

If Atletico are able to score goals early, they have a great opportunity to turn things around. However, with Real Madrid's experience and mentality of champions in the Champions League, it is very difficult to get rid of them.

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Jan Oblak; Nahuel Molina, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand, Javi Galan; Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Samuel Lino; Julian Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann.

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois; Federico Valverde, Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy; Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga; Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Kylian Mbappe.

Final prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid (Real Madrid qualified 4-3 on aggregate)