JAKARTA - The global automotive industry's power map is projected to change drastically by 2025. Chinese car manufacturers are expected to sell more vehicles than Japanese manufacturers, which have dominated for a long time.
Launching from Carnewschina, Tuesday, December 30, this is also the first time China has surpassed Japan in annual automotive sales after more than two decades of dominance of the Sakura State. Sales of Chinese car manufacturers are expected to reach around 27 million units globally by 2025.
This is based on a report by Nikkei China, which processed industry data up to November 2025 from automotive manufacturers' disclosures and S&P Global Mobility. The figure is higher than the total sales of Japanese manufacturers, which are estimated to be below 25 million units.
The calculation includes passenger and commercial vehicles, both domestic sales and exports. Sales attribution is based on company ownership and brand citizenship, while a 50:50 joint venture is calculated according to the brands sold.
Around 70 percent of Chinese carmakers' sales are projected to come from the domestic market. In it, new energy vehicles (NEVs) which include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are expected to account for nearly 60 percent of total passenger car sales in China.
A number of Chinese brands are increasingly solidifying their position on the global stage. Industry reports say BYD and Geely have broken into the top 10 global car manufacturers based on sales in 2025.
Meanwhile, Chery emerged as one of China's largest exporters, supported by a surge in overseas sales. The trend of Chinese vehicle exports also continues to strengthen throughout 2025.
Southeast Asia, which has long been dominated by Japanese brands, is expected to reach around 500,000 units. In Europe, sales are projected to increase to 2.3 million units, despite being hit by import tariffs, as PHEV models that are not subject to additional duties contribute.
Emerging markets also recorded significant growth. Sales in Africa are estimated at 230,000 units, up 32 percent from the previous year.
Latin America is even projected to break through 540,000 units, jumping 33 percent year-on-year. On the other hand, Japanese carmakers, who had recorded a global sales peak of nearly 30 million units in 2018, are expected to remain slightly below China's sales volume in 2025.
A number of Japanese brands have also reportedly experienced a decline in sales in major markets such as the United States. Meanwhile, their market share in China continues to be eroded by local manufacturers of the Bamboo Curtain.
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