The Strait of Hormuz is far from Indonesia. However, when the route is disrupted due to the war between Iran and the US and Israel, the impact is still felt here. The incident again reminds us that our energy affairs are not really safe.
The impact has also spread to many places. In the United States, the average gasoline price broke through US$4 per gallon in early April 2026, the highest level since August 2022. In Europe, eurozone inflation in March 2026 rose to 2.5 percent, with the energy component jumping 4.9 percent according to Eurostat. This means that the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a matter of the Middle East alone. It has become a global economic pressure.
In the midst of this situation, until early April 2026, there has been no official announcement of an increase in the price of non-subsidized fuel in Indonesia. This attitude of holding back the price is commendable. In Indonesia, fuel prices are not just numbers on the SPBU board. Once it goes up, the effect quickly spreads to transportation costs, the price of basic goods, production costs, and then to household expenses. Therefore, when prices are held, not only market stability is maintained, but also the breathing space of the community.
Even so, we shouldn't be in a hurry to calm down. The price that was held did not mean that the pressure was gone. The pressure is still there, it just changed lanes. If the world oil price remains high, the burden can shift to inflation, subsidies, compensation, then to the state budget. Therefore, the decision to hold down the price of fuel is indeed a relief, but at the same time saves a lot of homework.
The risk is also not a trivial matter. Reuters on April 2, 2026 reported that J.P. Morgan estimated that oil prices could move in the range of US$120 to US$130 per barrel in the near future. There is even a risk of breaking through US$150 if the supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz lasts until mid-May. If that scenario occurs, Indonesia certainly cannot just rely on optimism. The country must be ready to bear a heavier burden.
The 2026 State Budget has actually prepared a cushion. In the 2026 RAPBN Financial Note issued by the Ministry of Finance, the government allocated energy subsidies of IDR 210.1 trillion for fuel, electricity, and 3 kilogram LPG. Meanwhile, the total subsidy is projected to reach IDR 318.9 trillion. This figure shows that the government is preparing a large fiscal space to maintain purchasing power and stability.
The signs are already visible. Until the end of February 2026, the realization of energy subsidies and compensation reached IDR 51.5 trillion. There is indeed an element of compensation payment in the previous year there. However, the figure still signals that the energy burden in the state budget has begun to be felt, even before the Hormuz Strait crisis developed further in early April.
On the supply side, Indonesia is also not completely safe. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, said that around 20 to 25 percent of Indonesia's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For finished fuels, he said Indonesia does not import them from the Middle East. This means that Indonesia will not be completely paralyzed if the line is disrupted. But we are also not strong enough to act as if everything is fine. As long as part of the crude oil supply is still connected to the conflict-prone region, any tension there will still bounce here.
Therefore, the Strait of Hormuz crisis should be read as a warning that our energy sector's homework is not yet complete. President Prabowo who called the crisis a blessing in disguise that forced Indonesia to accelerate food and energy self-sufficiency. Crises often force countries to rearrange priorities that have been delayed for too long.
The government has also shown its direction. The focus of the National Energy Council for the period 2026-2030 emphasizes energy sovereignty, energy resilience, energy independence, and energy self-sufficiency. The policy direction is clear. The question is only one, namely how fast and how consistent it is done.
At this point, what is needed is not just praise, but acceleration of work. Energy resilience will not be born only from speeches. It is determined by strengthened domestic production, enlarged reserves, accelerated renewable energy, and the courage to reduce dependence on imports that are easily shaken every time the world warms.
If that is not done, then what will happen is that today it is calm, tomorrow it is a hassle, tomorrow it is a panic. That is why the decision to hold fuel prices until early April is the right step, but it has not solved the problem. The real threat still exists, namely the high global oil price can suppress inflation, aggravate subsidies and compensation, and then burden the state budget. JP Morgan's report on oil price projections and 2026 RAPBN data show that risk.
So, the best response now is not to be complacent, but to move faster. The Strait of Hormuz taught a lesson, as long as our energy is easily disturbed by conflicts from outside, as long as we are not really sovereign.
Therefore, the acceleration of self-sufficiency and energy sovereignty is worth supporting and accompanying. Because what is being tested today is not only the price of fuel, but how strong Indonesia is when the world is shaken.
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