According To Predictions, Indonesia Has Passed The Peak Of COVID-19 On July 15

JAKARTA - The government has extended the implementation of community activity restrictions (PPKM) level 3-4 in Java-Bali. Even so, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Panjaitan said the peak of COVID-19 in Indonesia had passed.

Luhut said the peak of cases occurred on July 15, 2021. Currently, it is stated that there has been a decline of up to 59.6 percent. press conference broadcast on the Presidential Secretariat's YouTube channel, Monday, August 9.

There were 56,757 daily positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Thursday, July 15, a record high during the pandemic. On the same day, 19,049 cases recovered and 982 cases died. The number of examinations that day was recorded as 249,059 specimens, with 480,199 active cases. The total positive confirmations at that point were 2,726,803 cases, 2,176,412 recovered, and 70,192 cases died. As of Monday, August 9, the total accumulated positive cases of COVID-19 had reached 3,686,740 cases, 3,129,661 cases recovered, and died 108,571 cases.

Still Fluctuating

The government claims that there has been a decline in COVID-19 cases in recent times. The Bed Occupancy Rate (BOR) has gradually improved since the peak of Corona passed on July 15, 2021.

Luhut also said that the number of COVID-19 deaths had decreased. However, there are still some provinces that experience fluctuations. "In addition to the number of cases, the death rate is decreasing, although conditions are still fluctuating in several provinces," said Luhut. He also assessed that there are still areas that have a high number of COVID-19 cases. These areas are Malang Raya and Bali. "There are still problems in Malang Raya and also in Bali. For this reason, the government will intervene in these two areas to reduce the rate of addition of cases," he said.

Don't Be Jemawa Despite the decline in cases, Luhut asked the public to continue to be vigilant regarding the transmission of COVID-19. Because he emphasized that the COVID-19 pandemic is not over. "I want to remind all of our friends, all of us Indonesians are super careful about this. We don't need to be happy that this is over, it's far from over," said Luhut. reveal the results of expert studies. It is said that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue for the next few years. "Earlier, the results of studies by experts, world experts, 70 percent of them said that this case will continue for the next few years. Therefore, our lifestyle will definitely change. changes, our way of life must change, and we must adapt to this new way together," said Luhut. Luhut said life in the future will be all digital. Health protocols will also be the main thing. "We will probably live like this in the future, where everything will be more and more digitalized. So we will rely a lot on vaccination cards or cue cards or later masks, washing hands and so on. So all payments are also people will reduce it with cash, maybe continue with cellphones. I think this is just a lesson, "said Luhut

The Peak of COVID-19 As Predicted

The explosion of COVID-19 cases that occurred in mid-July had been predicted by experts some time ago. One of them, an epidemiologist at Australia's Griffith University, Dicky Budiman, estimates that the daily cases of COVID-19 at its peak could reach 50-100 thousand cases.

The reason, explained Dicky, is that the transmission of COVID-19 in the community is at an alarming level, namely at the community transmission level. But the calculation of the daily number of COVID-19 cases could be higher than originally estimated. "If health protocols are adhered to, COVID-19 cases in Indonesia could reach a peak in late July or early August, with the number of new cases increasing to 200 thousand per day," that's the new prediction of Dicky, Thursday, July 15.

Previously, Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin had also mentioned the possibility of the peak of the spike in COVID-19 cases in Indonesia occurring in mid-July 2021. This prediction is based on Indonesia's experience in dealing with the first wave of Corona.

"Based on our experience in the first wave, the model we use shows that the peak will occur in the first or second week of July," said Minister of Health Budi in a meeting with Commission IX of the DPR RI, last Tuesday, July 13.

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