JAKARTA - A number of survey institutions have stated that PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri will be the queen maker in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. In addition, there are also the names of the General Chairperson of Golkar Airlangga Hartarto and the General Chairperson of Gerindra Prabowo Subianto.
In response to this, the Executive Director of the Democratic Research and Analysis Corner (SUDRA) Fadhli Harahab has a different view.
He assessed that Vice President Ma'ruf Amin and Chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB) Muhaimin Iskandar also had great potential to become king makers in the 2024 presidential election.
According to him, the two figures have a fairly strong bargaining position in the 2024 election, because they both come from Islamic boarding schools and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).
"I think all political parties or coalitions of political parties want to dominate or at least win in Java. And without PKB and NU, I think it will be quite difficult," said Fadhli when contacted, Friday, July 2.
In Fadhli's analysis, Ma'ruf and Muhaimin alias Cak Imin are two important figures who can influence the grassroots NU (Nahdlyin). Where most of them are PKB voters who also make choices in the upcoming presidential election.
"Pak Ma'ruf is a senior NU Kiai, respected within NU circles and even outside NU, while Cak Imin is the chairman of the PKB who has succeeded in bringing the party to the center of the board and even led NU cadres to become vice president in the last election," he explained.
Therefore, said Fadhli, through their influence and network, these two figures could become king makers. Or at least be a determinant of the direction of the coalition in the upcoming presidential election.
"These two figures have strong networks in their respective lines. Pak Ma'ruf Ulama with his pesantren network, then Cak Imin is an accomplished politician who has succeeded in growing the party," he said.
Previously, Surveylink Indonesia Executive Director Wempy Present stated that there were 6 king-queen makers in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Starting from the general chairman of political parties to the former President of the Republic of Indonesia.
"I see that if you look at today's political constellation, there are at least six king makers that I think we can record," Wempy said in a webinar, Wednesday, June 30.
The first figure is President Joko Widodo. According to Wempy, Jokowi's figure can become a king maker, because he is the most powerful person in Indonesia today.
Second, PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri. Wempy assesses that Megawati is currently the number one person in the ruling party which has won two elections in a row, 2014 and 2019.
Next is the name of the Minister of Defense and General Chair of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto. According to Wempy, apart from being a king maker, Prabowo still has a chance to become one of the presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election.
Another name is former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). Wempy said that SBY could become the king maker because he was still trying to encourage his son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), who is also the General Chair of the Democratic Party to have a career in politics.
Then, according to Wempy, there is the name of former Vice President and Golkar politician Jusuf Kalla (JK). He saw that although JK was not the head of a political party, JK was still skilled in determining the candidate for leader.
Finally, there is the name of the general chairman of the NasDem Party, Surya Paloh. He saw that the relationship between NasDem and other coalition parties was quite tenuous lately.
Therefore, according to Wempy, Surya could use the momentum to build his own coalition. Moreover, some time ago, Surya had met with the General Chair of the Golkar Party, Airlangga Hartarto, without other coalition parties.
"I see that relations between coalitions are a bit cold, as if Surya will not be invited again in the coalition that will come in 2024. Thus, if you look at NasDem politics, he tries to be outside of the coalition lines that exist today," he concluded.
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