Amien Rais' New Party Should Find A New Person

Amien Rais wearing a black cap (Photo: Pan.or.id)

JAKARTA - Amien Rais' move to form a new party seems so serious. This is supported by the statement of one of the founders of the National Mandate Party (PAN) Muhammad Yunus. He said that his party had prepared the infrastructure for the party and the public seemed to be waiting.

In addition, the party whose name and date it is still unknown is claimed to have stolen the attention of many national figures. Because, according to Yunus, currently a number of figures have opened communication with Amien Rais regarding this party. However, when asked about who would join him, Yunus was actually economical.

"I cannot comment on the names of the characters, because (the figures) communicate directly with Pak Amien Rais," said Yunus when contacted by VOI, Monday, May 11.

The reason for the formation of this party was an effort to correct PAN's steps under the leadership of Zulkifli Hasan. Later, PAN cadres who became Amien Rais loyalists would move to the party.

In addition, Amien Rais' son who just left the PAN management, Hanafi Rais, will also join this party.

Although a number of preparations have been carried out by Amien Rais and his camp to build this new party, according to LIPI political observer, Aisah Putri Budiarti, or commonly called Puput, assesses that this new party should not only rely on the figure of Amien Rais.

Amien Rais, said Puput, is no longer the figure he used to be. So that this party needs another name to become a new figure as a symbol of the party. Moreover, in the era of direct elections like now, people's culture tends to choose their parties based on political figures.

"Amien Rais' figure of political attractiveness is different from the past. Where at the beginning of reform, it became the peak of politics for him who was known as a reformist figure. But I suspect that currently Amien's figure is not as strong as before," explained Puput in a short message.

As well as a national figure as a symbol of the party, this new party must also have a national figure at the regional level as their weapon to penetrate the legislative elections in 2024. "The new party also needs important figures who attract the masses at the local level because the basis for electing Pileg is regional," he said.

Not enough figures, said Puput, this party must also prepare new ideas to attract public attention. Given that, in the coming 2024 the competition between parties will be even sharper. Because, in that year there were no strong presidential candidates or incumbents.

"The majority of parties are currently coalition governments. So the public is looking forward to the party's bright ideas and breakthroughs in the upcoming elections," he said.

Not only a matter of figures, this party must also have a very large financial capacity as initial capital. Not only to establish party structures in various regions but also to campaign and promote themselves in the long term, since the party was officially declared.

What about Hanafi Rais?

This political observer from LIPI said it was no secret that Amien's son, Hanafi Rais was predicted to be his father's successor in politics. Although he is well-known in Yogyakarta because he has run as a candidate for mayor in 2011 and his constituency, however, for Puput this is considered insufficient to kick off the national political scene.

"I think the general public at the national level is not very familiar with Hanafi's progress," he said.

Even when compared to young politicians who inherited the throne of parents such as the General Chairperson of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) and the Chairman of the Indonesian Parliament Puan Maharani, Hanafi's figure is very weak.

Because, unlike AHY and Puan, Hanafi only occasionally appears in the public space. While AHY, apart from currently serving as chairman, has also been competing as a candidate for the Governor of DKI Jakarta.

Meanwhile, Puan, in addition to being a Minister in the Work Cabinet for the first period of the Jokowi administration, also has an important internal position in the PDI-P.

"But not the case with PAN and Hanafi Rais. Evidenced by the defeat at the last congress," he said.

So, for Puput, if this new party wants to enter the national political scene in the next 2024 elections, it is imperative to look for strong figures besides Amien Rais and Hanafi Rais.

"Hanafi Rais' character still has to be honed to become a national figure for a party, let alone a new party that is still being initiated," said Puput.

Muhammadiyah can no longer rely on it

If previously there was an assumption that Amien Rais could rely on Muhammadiyah members to advance his new party, Puput considered the opposite.

For a long time, he said, Muhammadiyah and PAN were closely related. However, Puput doubts that this religious organization will follow Amien Rais' steps.

Given, over the past few years he has seen the relationship between Muhammadiyah and Amien not as strong as it was when this politician formed PAN.

"The dynamics that have developed in the last five years show that the relationship between Muhammadiyah and Amien is not fully strong as it was when Amien formed PAN," he explained.

Thus, in order for this new party to become stronger, Amien Rais and his loyalists must determine where the strength and roots of his party constituents are.

Puput also assessed that this party would face a challenge to fulfill the parliament threesold in the upcoming elections. Given that this threshold will usually increase slowly.

Moreover, this threshold is usually a way or strategy of the old party to suppress new parties that have sprung up. Thus, all the dynamics related to the election could be a decisive factor for this new party.

"The dynamics of the electoral system will also be an influencing factor in determining the ability of Amien Rais' new party to survive," he concluded.