British Scientists Say Indian Variant Is 60 Percent More Contagious, Mutates Into Nepali Variant

Ilustrasi COVID-19. (Wikimedia Commons / Mstyslav Chernov)

JAKARTA - A leading British epidemiologist said the variant of COVD-19 from India or the Delta variant, was 60 percent more infectious than the variant that was first identified in the UK or the Alpha variant.

Prof. Neil Ferguson, who leads the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College London, said the news was not as positive as he would have liked.

"The current best estimate is that this variant may be 60 percent more infectious than the Alpha variant," said Prof. Ferguson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Friday 4 June as reported by The National News.

“Some escape vaccine immunity, although there is still plenty of protection, and may cause severe illness from reported hospitalization data. It could be anywhere from 30 to 100 per cent more, but 60 per cent is a good central estimate."

Prof. Ferguson said people who were not vaccinated faced double the risk of being hospitalized with COVID-19.

"Obviously the vaccine still has a substantial effect, although it may be a little disrupted. We're still waiting for data on how much this variant can evade immunity, which can protect you from hospitalization."

He revealed that the Nepali variant which was partly to blame for the UK's decision to remove Portugal from the green list for travel, was essentially an Indian variant with further mutations.

Asked about the UK's prospects of lifting social distancing restrictions on June 21 as planned, Prof. Ferguson said it was a 'difficult assessment call' for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

"The data shows this week in a more negative direction than last week," he said.

Earlier, Public Health England (PHE) said on Thursday the Delta variant was the dominant variant in the UK, with 12,431 cases recorded as of June 2, a sharp increase from the 6,959 infections reported in the previous week.

Health officials say there is evidence to suggest that people infected with the variant are at greater risk of being hospitalized. Ironically, about two out of three patients with the Indian strain have not received the COVID-19 vaccine.

Of the 479 people hospitalized in the UK between February 1 and May 31, all infected with the Indian variant, 309 were not vaccinated, while eighteen people had received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Of the 137 cases hospitalized overnight, 90 have not been inoculated, while seven have received two doses of the vaccine.