JAKARTA - The Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago, assessed that the increase in the parliamentary threshold or Parliamentary Threshold (PT) to seven percent proposed by the NasDem Party was not solely based on the reason for simplifying the political system.
The reason is that the discourse has the potential to narrow PSI's electoral space to pass to parliament, especially because a number of PSI cadres are known to be former NasDem cadres.
"The potential for the migration of NasDem cadres to PSI in the future is still open and can even be greater. In this context, the proposed threshold of seven percent can be read as a 'yellow light' for cadres who are considering switching parties, so that they can reconsider the electoral risks if they join a party that has never passed to parliament," said Arifki, Sunday, March 1.
According to him, normatively the threshold increase can be justified within the framework of strengthening the presidential system. The fewer parties in parliament, the simpler the process of forming coalitions and negotiating legislation. However, in political practice, changes in the rules of the game are rarely neutral.
"The seven percent threshold is not just an institutional design. It is a political instrument. In the context of 2029, PSI is one of the parties that will be most affected if the rule is implemented," added Arifki.
He stated that with a higher threshold, small and medium parties that do not have a solid national vote base will face major obstacles. PSI, which has relied on the niche of young and urban voters, is forced to work twice as hard to break through that figure.
In the party system, the increase of PT encourages what is called the effective party simplification. This means that only parties with a wide electoral reach and mature organizational structures are able to survive. The impact is that growing parties risk being marginalized before they can grow optimally.
Arifki revealed that in the recent political dynamics, competition in the young and urban middle class voter segments is getting tighter. If viewed from a strategic perspective, the proposed threshold of seven percent can be an effort to secure a position for middle parties so that they are not eroded by new parties or parties that are on the rise.
"In politics, whoever sets the rules often determines who survives. PSI must certainly read this as a serious challenge," he said.
In addition to PSI, parties that are in the threshold range will also be encouraged to compete for votes. This situation has the potential to trigger cannibalization among medium parties in order to ensure a safe position above seven percent.
"This discourse is expected to be one of the main debates in the discussion of the revision of the electoral law in the future. For NasDem, this step can be read as an effort to prevent more cadres from switching parties. For PSI, this is an electoral test as well as a test of organizational resilience ahead of 2029," concluded Arifki.
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