JAKARTA - Political communication expert, Hendri Satrio, assessed that the Gerindra Party will get a hidden advantage when the public is too concerned about the competition between the PDI Perjuangan and PSI, which is often referred to as "Bull vs Elephant" in the upcoming 2029 Election.
The reason is, if you look at the history of post-reform elections, the incumbent party or political power tends to have a great opportunity to win again in the second period.
"I'm confused why people are so excited about 'bull vs elephant' in the 2029 election. If you look at history, it is actually the Garuda, alias the incumbent power at this time, who has the chance to win," he said, Sunday, February 15.
According to Hensat, incumbents are usually benefited by a number of factors, ranging from high levels of public recognition, a track record of visible programs, to a more solid political network than challengers.
He gave an example, in the era of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with the Democratic Party, the acquisition of seats in the DPR even jumped in the 2009 Election. The same thing also happened to Joko Widodo who was carried by PDIP, where the electoral dominance lasted in two periods of power. "These patterns, in my opinion, have been tested in recent times. The incumbent is relatively more difficult to compete with because he can rely on the narrative of program sustainability and the consolidation of the elite," he continued.
In addition, the incumbent position allows the utilization of policy momentum whose impact can be felt directly by the public ahead of the election. However, this advantage still has limits. "The incumbent is indeed easier to utilize the momentum of policies that are felt directly by the voters. But this advantage can be shaken if there is a major shock such as an economic crisis or a political scandal that undermines legitimacy," added Hensat.
Meanwhile, regarding the competition between PDIP and PSI, the founder of the KedaiKOPI Survey Institute revealed that on the basis of grassroots mass, PSI is still quite far from PDIP. Even the support of figures like Jokowi is considered not necessarily able to close the gap.
Therefore, the public space related to "Bull vs Elephant" is not necessarily reflective of the real power map. "The incumbent factor remains the most determining variable towards the 2029 Election," said Hensat.
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