Measuring The Chance Of Transferring To NasDem Gan

Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo (Photo: Angga Nugaraha/VOI)

JAKARTA - Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is advised to change political parties if he wants to continue running for president in the 2024 presidential election. One of them is the NasDem Party. Because the party created by Surya Paloh will open a presidential candidate convention in 2022.

This method is a solution if Ganjar is not accommodated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). Especially in the latest results from the Y-Publica survey agency, Ganjar's electability continued to advance until he managed to break through 20.2 percent.

Even the Indonesian Political Parameter Research Institute (PPI) noted that in February 2021, the popularity between PDIP DPP Chair Puan Maharani and Ganjar was equal among PDIP voters, which was in the 60-62 percent range.

So how will PDIP respond if Ganjar really wants to move to the NasDem Party?

"Just ask the GP (Ganjar Pranowo, ed)," said senior PDIP politician Hendrawan when contacted by VOI, Monday, May 31.

Meanwhile, the NasDem Party said it was open to all existing political dynamics. Including the matter of reward.

"In principle, NasDem is open to all figures who appear. We don't limit ourselves, while at the same time we don't want to be idle talk," said NasDem Party DPP Chairman Willy Aditya to VOI, Monday, May 31.

Willy said the NasDem Party presidential candidate convention must be held with full ticket requirements. Thus, the party continues to consolidate.

"We have to hold the convention with full ticket requirements, then NasDem is now focused on 2 domains. Building a coalition and adequacy of conditions. The second is preparing convention tools," said the member of Commission I of the DPR.

If Ganjar intends to join the presidential candidate convention, Willy said, NasDem is certainly open. Moreover, Ganjar already has a fairly high electability capital.

"You don't have to be a NasDem cadre to join the convention. Anyone is free," he said.

However, he continued, as the criteria for a presidential candidate promoted by NasDem, the candidate must meet 3 elements. Namely electability, capability and integrity.

"So far, we have always been monolithic, too electoral heavy. Everything is measured based on electability. So, in fact, this convention wants to present the second and third elements. The second element is capability. The third is integrity," he explained.

"High electability if it is not followed by capability and integrity is the same as a lie. Then during the convention process, a stage will be made on how he will explain what he wants to do, then there will be room for dialogue and public testing," he added.

The legislator from East Java said electability is indeed important in the competition and contestation space. However, for NasDem to become a president, electability alone is not enough.

"This is a matter of being president, so then we also don't forget about integrity and capability in a complete package. Because there is only one president, there are no two presidents, three presidents.

Willy added that this is indeed a new tradition because NasDem will bring the candidate to all provinces for public examination.

"So it's not only in the presidential debate, but the space is re-examined by the public. So it's not just electability," said Willy.

Reward Step Prediction

Political observer at Al Azhar Indonesia University, Andriadi Achmad, believes that Ganjar Pranowo will jump into NasDem if PDIP does not approve of Nyapres in 2024.

"There is a possibility that Ganjar Pranowo will move to another political party (Nasdem, ed), if the PDIP does not accommodate him to take the stage in the 2024 presidential election contestation," Andriadi told VOI, Monday, May 31.

According to him, Ganjar's electability, which continues to climb, allows him to be close to victory. Moreover, if PDIP wants to carry him, then the position of governor of Central Java for the two periods can replace Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.

"Given that Ganjar Pranowo's electability is in the top three. Even if it was encouraged and supported by the PDIP from an early age, Ganjar Pranowo's electability could have shot to the first position competing with Prabowo and Anies Baswedan," said the executive director of the Nusantara Institute PolCom SRC.

On the other hand, he continued, the PDI-P will fall and lose the stage, and even lose the presidential seat if the calculation is wrong about the 2024 presidential candidate.

"The fall of PDIP's choice to Jokowi (outside the Soekarno breed, ed) in the 2014 presidential election is proof that any cadre who has the potential and has high electability can be proposed as a PDIP presidential candidate. Likewise in the 2024 presidential election, if Puan is a cadre (Soekarno breed, ed) ) does not show a high level of electability, then other cadres, for example Ganjar Pranowo, can be proposed as presidential candidates in 2024," he explained.

However, the ticket for the PDIP presidential candidate is still in the hands of Megawati Soekarnoputri as general chairman. Where in the Indonesian political system, the leader of the solidarity maker type or the good father in a political party is still the main determinant of the way the political party leaves.

However, if Ganjar really jumps into the party, Andriadi predicts that the Central Java PDIP will split into a joint venture.

If Ganjar Pranowo moves to NasDem, his loyalists will also move and that could lead to the breakup of the PDI-P, especially Central Java and Indonesia in general," said Andriadi.

Of course, he added, this right will harm PDIP electorally and benefit NasDem.

"NasDem's voice shot up in the 2014 and 2019 elections, because from the start it supported Jokowi as the 2014 and 2019 presidential candidates," concluded Andriadi.

Meanwhile, political observer Pangi Syarwi Chaniago predicts that Ganjar Pranowo will not move to another political party, including NasDem even though it is not supported by PDIP. Because according to him, the governor of Central Java for the two terms will remain loyal to the bull party.

"Ganjar the blood of PDIP. Talking about Ganjar is talking about PDIP. I don't think I will want to change parties and be loyal to PDIP," Pangi told VOI, Monday, May 31.

"If Ganjar isn't supported by the PDI-P then it's impossible to find another party. He won't want to either," he continued.

The Executive Director of the Voxpol Center for Research and Consulting, said there were a number of things that made Ganjar remain loyal to PDIP. One of them, the relationship between the two parties is ingrained. Therefore, Ganjar and the PDI-P cannot be separated.

"When people talk about Ganjar, it's PDI-P. And vice versa," said Pangi.

Regarding his candidacy for the presidential election, Pangi assessed that the potential for Ganjar to win the contest was greater if it was promoted by the PDI-P. Because, the party machine will fight for the totality of victory.

"It is different if it is carried by another party. Because Ganjar is not an internal cadre of the party," he said.

For this reason, Pangi said, no one can guarantee that Ganjar's electability will continue even if he moves to another political party. Because the majority of Ganjar's voter base are PDIP permanent voters.

"Ganjar voters are PDIP voters. I also saw Jokowi voters yesterday in the 2019 election now the voter base has shifted to Ganjar. Even though the Indonesian people are considered to vote based on figures, on the basis of voters in Central Java they still vote on the basis of the political party that carries them," he explained.

If PDIP does not give Ganjar a ticket, Pangi added, then he will automatically lose his voter base.

"Electoral barns or ballot keys are in Central Java, West Java, East Java, DKI Jakarta and Banten," said Pangi.