The Helldy Agustian-Alawi Pair Mahmud Unggul In The Cilegon City Election Survey

Screenshoot release survey via zoom

JAKARTA - Indonesia Development Monitoring (IDM) released the results of a survey related to the election of the mayor (Pilwakot) Cilegon, Banten. As a result, the Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair won with electability reaching 55.1 percent.

While in second place, there was the Isro Mi'raj-Nurotul Uyun pair who were chosen at 24.8 percent and followed by the Robinsar-Fajar Hadi Prabowo pair in third place with 11.6 percent.

"As for respondents who did not vote as much as 8.5 percent," said IDM Executive Director Alamsyah Wijaya in an online survey presentation, Monday, November 4.

Alamsyah continued, in the release of a survey entitled "Measuring the Electoral Power Map of the Three Pairs of Candidates for Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Cilegon in the 2024 Pilkada", the survey results also show a map of the distribution of voters based on voter typology. Namely, rational, psychological and sociological voters where the majority cast their votes on the Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair.

Alamsyah explained that the high electability of the Helldy Agustian-Alawi Mahmud pair was also boosted from the level of satisfaction with the performance of the Mayor of Cilegon for the 2021-2024 period, Helldy Agustian, which reached 86.7 percent and the level of performance success was assessed at 87.9 percent.

"This high level of satisfaction and success is the main factor for people wanting to be incumbent as mayor of Cilegon again," said Alamsyah.

Alamsyah detailed that 73.8 percent wanted Helldy Agustian to return to being Mayor of Cilegon. Meanwhile, 18.1 percent said they didn't want it and as many as 8.1 percent said they didn't know or didn't answer.

The survey results also showed that the respondents' answers were 76.2 percent of the public saying they knew that the Regional Head Election (Pilkada) would be held simultaneously in November 2024.

As many as 89.1 percent of respondents said they would not change the choice of mayors and deputy mayors of Cilegon. While 10.9 percent said it was still possible to change the choice.

"Among those who may still change their choice, will strengthen their choice during the campaign period by 50.2 percent, followed by the H day of the election of 30.6 percent, during a calm period of 19.2 percent campaign," he said.

This IDM survey was conducted in the period 22-30 October 2024 through face-to-face interviews in four sub-districts in Cilegon. These are Cilegon, Cibeber, Pulomerak and Ciwandan based on data on the number of the 2024 Pilkada Permanent Voter List (DPT). Meanwhile, the stratification of this survey is the proportion of the age of voters.

The sample in this survey is 1200 respondents with a margin of error +/- 2.82 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.