Central Papua Pilkada October Survey: Electability Of Willem Wandik-Aloysiu Giyai Capai 64.1 Percent

Illustration of the 2024 Election (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Panel (PSI) released the results of the latest survey of the 2024 Central Papua Regional Head Election (Pilkada). As a result, the candidate pair for Governor and Deputy Governor, Willem Wandik-Aloysius Giyai, won a significant lead with an electability rate of 64.1 percent.

"They are far ahead of the other three pairs of candidates in various election simulations, both using noken and non-noken systems," said PSI Executive Director Dominico Bagas in his statement, Tuesday, October 22.

Bagas explained that the survey was conducted using an open question method for the people of Central Papua regarding the four pairs of cagub and cawagub by using a simulation of the implementation of the noken 'bigman' system and hanging nokens.

The survey results show that the choice of people in Mimika and Nabire Regencies for the Willem Wandik-Aloysius Giyai pair is in first place with a percentage of 64.1 percent. In second place is the Natalis Tabuni-Titus Natkime pair with 12.9 percent.

The three pairs of Meki Nawipa-Denas Geley with 9.1 percent. Finally, the pair John Wempi Wetipo-Ausilius Youw with 5.8 percent.

"Meanwhile, 8.1 percent of respondents chose not to vote," said Bagas.

Then there are six districts namely Puncak Jaya, Intan Jaya, Deyai, Dogiyai, Puncak, and Paniai in Central Papua provinces that use the noken system in the 2024 regional head elections or regional elections.

The noken system is an election decision entrusted to the head or leader of the tribe in the election of the Indonesian Survey Panel to conduct a survey in the six regencies by simulating closed questions to village heads or tribal and traditional leaders in the six regencies.

Namely, with questions from the four pairs of cagub and cawagub Central Papua which will be selected later on the implementation of the bigman noken system and hanging noken.

"The survey results show that the majority of the heads or tribal leaders in six regencies chose the Willem Wandik-Aloysius Giyai pair with 67.9 percent. Followed by Natkime's Tabuni-Titus Natkime with 10.3 percent electability, then Meki Nawipa-Denas Geley with 5.9 percent and John Wempi Wetipo-Ausilius Youw with 3.4 percent electability," said Bagas.

"Meanwhile, 12.5 percent of tribal leaders or leaders in six regencies that use the noken system in Central Papua are still keeping their choices a secret," he added.

In this survey, respondents were also measured regarding the level of public trust in the four pairs of candidates. The results show the high confidence of the people of Central Papua in the leadership of the Willem Wandik-Aloysius Giyai pair, which won a score of 92.9 percent.

The second position was occupied by Natalis Tabuni-Titus Natkime pair with a score of 53.1 percent, followed by the Meki Nawipa-Denas Geley pair with a score of 49.8 percent, and the John Wempi Wetipo-Ausilius Youw pair with a score of 40.9 percent.

In addition, continued Bagas, this survey also noted that 77.9 percent of the people of Central Papua strongly considered the track record and experience of candidates in leading and concrete achievements in the government sector when choosing regional heads.

"The high level of public trust in the Willem Wandik and Aloysius Giyai pairs makes their electability rate exceed 50 percent compared to the other three pairs of candidates," said Bagas.

The Indonesian Survey Panel survey was conducted in the period 9-18 October 2024 involving 1,480 residents of Central Papua who were selected from the population of the final voter list (DPT) of the 2024 General Election as many as 1,128,844 voters. Data collection is carried out through face-to-face interviews method.

Respondents spread proportionally at 740 polling stations in eight districts, namely Nabire, Mimika, Dogiyai, Deiyai, Intan Jaya, Puncak, Puncak Jaya, and Paniai Regencies.

This survey has a margin of error of up to 2.55 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.